Manchester United have only a 22% chance of making it to the semi-finals of the Champions League at the behest of Bayern Munich according to the Euro Club Index.
The Red Devils turned around a 2-0 deficit with a 3-0 win against Olympiakos in the second leg of their last 16 tie on Wednesday to book a last eight spot.
However their joy was cut short today after they were drawn against reigning champions Bayern Munich earlier today.
Pep Guardiola's side are unbeaten in the Bundesliga this year and are looking to become the first team to retain the Champions League trophy.
Few are likely to give Moyes and his Manchester United side much of a chance of making it through to the last four - now it seems as though the Euro Club Index have put an exact number on their chances.
According to their (very complicated) formula, the Red Devils have got a 22.1% chance of making it past Bayern Munich, who of course are given a 77.9% chance of making it through.
Manchester United fans are unlikely to be too impressed with that number, and will retain onto hope that they can upset the odds at Old Trafford in the first leg.
The bookmakers appear to agree with the Euro Club Index, and have placed Manchester United as 33-1 outsiders to win the tournament having had them at 16-1 before the draw.
Despite their slim chances of progressing, they are not the club with statically the least chance of making it to the semis.
Euro Club Index claim that Borussia Dortmund have just a 15.9% chance of beating Real Madrid - as they did last year - and moving one step closer to the final.
Euro Club Index: Likely semi-finalists
Real Madrid - 84.1% chance of qualifying
Bayern Munich - 77.9%
FC Barcelona - 73.9%
Chelsea - 57.2%
PSG - 42.8%
Atletico Madrid - 26.1%
Man Utd - 22.1%
Borussia Dortmund - 15.9%