Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen is fast becoming one of the most polarising draft prospects in recent years. His prototypical frame, cannon arm, mobility, and intelligence are hugely attractive to teams looking for their next franchise signal caller. However, his issues with accuracy and decision making could be crippling at the next level. This hasn't stopped rumours swirling that John Dorsey and the Browns will pull the trigger on Allen with the first pick of the 2018 draft though. But, a system for gauging a quarterback's potential production in the league based on his college statistics produced by Football Outsiders called Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience (QBASE) gives a lowly projection for the 21-year-old at the next level. 

Allen is the only top quarterback prospect in 2018 to have a negative QBASE score and that does not translate well into the NFL based on the history of the system.

Since 1997, 27 quarterbacks have been selected within the 100 picks of the draft despite having a negative score on the QBASE system. Not a single one of them has made a Pro Bowl or won a Super Bowl as a starter.

Amongst those 27 is a group of first round picks that includes some of the biggest busts in modern NFL history; Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman, and Patrick Ramsey.

This makes for concerning reading for Allen and those teams that have an interest in drafting him in the first round. 

The argument for his skills translating to the NFL are often drawn back to the Carson Wentz comparisons that have followed him around for the draft process.

Both are ideal sized, big armed, mobile, intelligent signal callers with strong character and a background of playing against underwhelming talent. 

The key difference between them comes in what they managed to achieve with that respective talent. Wentz won multiple national titles at North Dakota State and performed admirably against power five opponents.

Playing in the Mountain West conference, Allen's exposure to NFL calibre opponents was limited, and when he did face off against power five schools he bombed out spectacularly. 

Twice last season, against Oregon and Iowa, Allen failed to register a touchdown pass whilst combining for three picks and 238 yards over the two games. 

Most notably though, he registered an ugly five interception performance against an average Nebraska team in 2016. Overall he combined for a 52% completion rate against the three teams. 

Allen's main rivals to be the top pick in the draft all have positive QBASE scores, with Baker Mayfield's +1480 ranking fourth highest all time. 

So, whilst it may not affect his draft stock, it could be worth noting for teams when discussing his long term projection.