Daniel Ricciardo’s decision to swap Red Bull for Renault is the biggest shift in the Formula 1 driver market since Nico Rosberg packed up his world championship trophy and disappeared into the Abu Dhabi sunset. This is an extremely high-stakes roll of the dice from Ricciardo. Stepping away from a race-winning team to join a midfield outfit – even one that is on the rise – always represents a risk. Doing so at the age of 29 makes it even more perilous: if this goes wrong, the Australian is unlikely to get another chance at the top. It was, however, a decision over which Ricciardo had full control. Red Bull wanted to extend their decade-long relationship with the seven-time grand prix winner, handing him a contract that merely required his signature. Instead, he shocked the sport by signing a two-year deal with Renault. That unsigned Red Bull contract could well define his career in grand prix racing. A decade from now, will he look at it with a sense of satisfaction, or feel burdened by regret?

RED BULL GIVES YOU WINGS

If his decision to join Renault came as a shock, Ricciardo’s move away from Red Bull should not have. The Australian has seemed restless since teammate Max Verstappen signed a lucrative long-term contract ahead of last year’s United States Grand Prix. Ricciardo had not known about the deal and it seemed to rattle him, particularly as he was heading into the last year of his own contract. The money aspect was not crucial, but the wage disparity – an estimated $4m per season in Max’s favour – must still have rankled. Remember, Daniel is older, more experienced, and has won more grands prix. It seemed indicative of a wider shift towards Verstappen, one that reared its head again this season when the pair collided during the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Though Max appeared to be at greater fault both drivers admitted equal blame, at least in public. Red Bull’s impending switch to Honda power for the 2019 campaign must also have played a part. The Japanese firm has struggled to adapt to modern F1 since returning to the sport in 2015 and is unlikely to produce an engine to match Mercedes or Ferrari next term. Following the announcement of the new partnership, Ricciardo spoke of needing to be convinced that Honda was the right decision for Red Bull. Presumably, he never was. Though never demotivated, there was a sense that change was coming. He made it clear that going up against Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes held no fear, while replacing the four-time champion would have appealed even more. Given the chance, he would have been equally keen to reunite with Sebastian Vettel at Ferrari. Without saying it aloud, Ricciardo was telling the world that he wanted to drive for one of the sport’s two powerhouse teams. But those avenues closed, with Mercedes favouring an unchanged line-up and Ferrari singling out rookie Charles Leclerc as the replacement for Kimi Raikkonen, be it in 2019 or 2020. Ricciardo’s options shrunk to Red Bull, Renault and McLaren. The safest bet was to remain in situ, with a team that can be relied upon to produce phenomenal cars and alongside a teammate who has helped to push Ricciardo to new levels of performance. Renault were outside contenders for his signature; McLaren cannot have held any real appeal. Neither seemed like a major threat to Red Bull. While Mercedes and to a lesser extent Ferrari still looked like potential destinations, Ricciardo’s present employers needed to go the extra mile to keep their man on board. With no rivals for his signature, did Red Bull still work hard enough? Perhaps this was what cemented his final decision. Or perhaps, with Verstappen and Honda in mind, he had already settled on moving. Which begs the question as to Ricciardo’s prime motivation in making this switch: was he fully sold on joining Renault or was this simply about getting away from Red Bull?