Liverpool had a 78% chance of winning the Premier League at the start of January

Liverpool FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Premier League

Despite missing out on the Premier League title, there’s plenty for Liverpool to take from this season.

Only a remarkable team goes an entire 38-game campaign losing just one match, while their tally of 97 points is the third-highest in English top flight history.

And when you consider the age of some of the players in Jurgen Klopp’s squad, they’re likely to be competing for some time.

Virgil van Dijk, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino are all 27. Mohamed Salah and Alisson Becker are 26.

Elsewhere, Andrew Robertson is 25 while Trent Alexander-Arnold is 20.

That’s a strong nucleus for Klopp to work with for the next few years.

That will give the German some solace, because he will be hurting after missing out on the Premier League.

Liverpool FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Premier League

Liverpool had 78% chance to win title

Liverpool held a seven-point lead over Man City on January 12, 2019.

Klopp had just watched his team defeat Brighton at the Amex Stadium and the feeling that this was going to be their year was only growing.

But draws against Leicester, West Ham, Manchester United and Everton proved to be their undoing.

Data produced by analysts at shows the probability of Liverpool winning the title after each matchday - and it might pain their fans to see.

They had a 78% chance of being champions after matchday 20, in which they beat Arsenal 5-1 on December 29 and Man City beat Southampton on December 30.


Even after City beat the Reds 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium on January 3, Liverpool were 73% favourites.

But a 1-1 draw against West Ham on February 4 saw Liverpool’s chances cut to 57% and when Klopp’s side drew against Everton on March 3, City, who now had a one-point lead in the title race, became favourites with a 65% probability.


It was an advantage that they wouldn’t relinquish.


The data won’t help Liverpool answer suggestions that they bottled the title.

But an utterly absorbing battle had to have a loser.

Unfortunately for the Reds, it was them.

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