Royal Ascot Day One Preview - 2.30pm Queen Anne Stakes

p1ddiffam81vni9dp1fo1k61106dt.jpg

The Queen Anne Stakes is a 1m race for 4yo+ horses, worth £340,260 to the winner.

In the past we’ve had the fortune to see some of the highest caliber horses of recent years’ winning this race - Ribchester [2017], Declaration of War [2013], Frankel [2012] and Canford Cliffs [2011].

This year's renewal promises to be an electric introduction to the Royal Ascot festival, with the market currently headed by Le Brivido, from the Aidan O’Brien stable, superstar filly and Queen of the North - Lauren and Lockinge winner Mustashry rounding out the top three.

In this preview we look at alternative angles to analyse the race, using statistics to build up a profile, seeking to identify horses that could be well suited to conditions.

2:30 Ascot 1m (Str) Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Previous Race

Firstly, we look where previous Queen Anne winners raced immediately prior to their Ascot victory. There’s a remarkable statistic here with 11 of the last 19 winners coming directly from the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury, with no other race contributing more than one winner.

Of this year's field there are several horses that have competed in the Lockinge Stakes, including Mustashry, Laurens, Accidental Agent, Romanised, Le Brivido, Sharja Bridge, Lord Glitters and Romanised

Age

There’s an age statistic that can help give an angle to the Queen Anne Stakes and filter out a number of horses currently present in the market. 

Horses aged 6 and above are 0/22 in the last 11 runnings of this race. It’s a very interesting statistic as Mustashry, Lord Glitters and Stormy Antarctic are all aged 6.

p1ddiaqklb11ok1hveo0i3se6maf.jpg

Official Ratings

The official ratings provide some insight to the winner of the race. With 10 of the previous 11 winners having a rating of 109+, the category this year includes runners Laurens, Hazapour and Sharja Bridge. The last horse to win below this mark was Hardason (Aidan O’Brien) in 2008.

You can extend that number further with 8 of these 11 having an official rating above 121. This year only Mustashry meets this criteria.

p1ddic6jmdbutgmvkntr6715cnj.jpg

Horses in the top 2 of the Official Ratings have a good record here. Top rated horses are 6/11 54.55% in the last 11 years, with 2nd rated horses 2/9 22%. Horses outside the top two on official ratings are 3/103 with a Win Strike Rate of only 2.91%. I’d take this as a positive for the chances of Mushtashry and Laurens, who are the top two rated in the Official Ratings.

Stall & Draw Analysis

The position in the stalls can be an important factor to help a horse gain a good track position in a race. The table shows the Win Strike Rate of the Stalls at Ascot over the 1m distance.

p1ddif3r2vmrk1fv17in1a3166er.jpg

To understand if a statistic is significant enough to provide an edge we can use a method of assessing the Actual Wins compared to the Expected Wins, based on the bookmaker market price prior to the race. By averaging out the results of an individual stall with that of its neighbors, a profile can be built to highlight a potential stall bias.

Ground conditions and weather can have a significant impact on the draw, so let’s look at all 1m races at Ascot and build a comparison between the Actual vs Expected results on Soft Ground [Good to Soft, Soft, Heavy] vs. Good Ground [Good, Good to Firm, Firm].

p1ddidon5p11ik7p9usorbosemp.jpg

It can be seen that when the ground is softer there is a pronounced bias towards the middle stalls 7 – 12. The recent heavy rain has softened the ground and if the poor weather continues as expected the ground will likely be Good to Soft, which holds potential for a stall bias. The top runners have missed out on the middle stalls with the Olmedo being the shortest odds.

Overall Profile

  • Last race was in the Group 1 Lockinge race at Newbury
  • Aged 4yo or 5yo
  • Top 2 in Official Ratings
  • Drawn in stalls 7-12.

To win: Laurens @ 6/1 wth GIVEMEBET

Fits the bill aside from the stall draw, although has the next best draw and will be racing from stall 6. She’s a proven Group 1 performer, having already won the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket in October 2018. She was beaten by a race fit Mustashry last time out and with a run under her belt she can be expected to improve for this race.

I’d be concerned if the ground came up too Soft, as she disappointed at this track in October last year on Champions Day on soft ground.

Each Way Chance: Olmedo @ 14/1 EW

French trainer Jean-Claude Rouget normally brings a strong contender over when he comes to Royal Ascot. He’s 3/6 50% +8.5pts when sending runners in the last five years.

His only entry at this year’s Royal Ascot is 14/1 shot for this race Olmedo. The trainers’ record at the festival is not to be discounted and Olmedo could be worth an Each Way Bet. He can also take advantage of a good draw in Stall 10 to get good early track position

All odds accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to fluctuation. T&C’s apply. 18+. www.begambleaware.org

News Now - Sport News