Ascot Day Two Preview – 3:05pm Queen's Vase

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The Queen's Vase, a flat staying race over 1m6f, brings us the first event for 3 year olds on Day Two of Royal Ascot.

It is one of the three races at Royal Ascot where the owners get to keep the winner’s trophy on a permanent basis, along with the Royal Hunt Cup and Ascot Gold Cup.

PREVIOUS RACE

10 of 11 previous winners have placed in the first three positions in their last race, with only Kew Gardens bucking the trend in 2018. There are thirteen runners in the race this year and eleven of them finished in the top three last time out and four of them were victorious, including Jalmoud and Almost Midnight.

OWNERS

Derrick Smith, Michael Tabor and Mrs John Magnier have a 3 of 9 (33%) record in this race. They have plenty of representation here this time around, sending Western Australia, Norway and Harpo Max from the Aidan O’Brien stable in their colors.

KEY TRAINER

Speaking of Aidan O'Brien, since 2008 he has a 5 of 18 (27.78%) record in this race with 10 placed horses, winning with Kew Gardens [2018], Sword Fighter [2016], Aloft [2015], Leading Light [2013] and Mikhail Glinka [2010]. O’Brien sends Barbados, Norway and Western Australia to the race this year.

OFFICIAL RATINGS

Horses near the top of the Official Ratings have a solid record in the race, with top rated horses having a 5 of 11 (45.45%) record since 2008. Second top rated horses are 3 of 12 (25%) record and also fare well.

Western Australia and Norway are the top two rated horses this year, both possessing an Official Rating of 107.

ODDS MARKET

The odds market normally gets this one correct, with 10 of 11 winners coming from 7/1 or below in the betting, where there is currently three horses - Western Australia, Norway and Jalmoud. Favorites typically fare just as well having a 6 of 11 (54.55%) record in the race since 2008, which looks favorable for current market leader Western Australia.

OVERALL PROFILE

We are looking for a horse that fits the following trends:

  • Placed in the top 3 in their last race
  • Trained by Aidan O’Brien
  • Owned by Smith, Tabor & Magnier
  • Less than 7/1 in the betting, preferably favorite.

HORSES IN FOCUS

Unsurprisingly, this looks like a race between two Aidan O’Brien runners at the front of the market - Western Australia & Norway. Norway has looked like a bit of a boat all season and his potential to sweat up in the preliminarys would concern me, with a tough last outing where he finished eighth.

Western Australia finally sprung into life with a win at Navan last time out when upped in trip to 1m5f and can improve further going an extra furlong and seemingly fits the profile as he leads the betting.

To Win: Back Western Australia @ 7/2 to Win

Another Aidan O’Brien horse who could run into a place from a big price is Harpo Max. He wears blinkers for the first time in this race and is also stepped up in trip by his trainer. When O’Brien applies the headgear for the first time, combined with a trip move, his horses by Galileo are 8/24 33%.

Each Way Chance: Harpo Max EW @ 25/1

All odds accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to fluctuation. T&C’s apply. 18+. www.begambleaware.org

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