Rawdaa for Sir Michael Stoute heads the market for the Duke of Cambridge Stakes, a Group 2 for Fillies & Mares on Day Two of the Royal Ascot Festival.
Stoute has won this race a couple of times in the past with Integral in 2015 and Strawberrydaiquiri in 2010.
Tom Wilson, along with GIVEMEBET , takes a look at the statistics and trends to try and pinpoint the winner in this competitive renewal.
LAST RACE PLACING
11 of 11 winners were in the Top 3 in their last race and with a bumper field of seventeen runners you could be forgiven for thinking this could rule many out. In fact, fourteen of the field came in the top three in their last outing so we will have to look closer at the field.
4 year olds have won 9 of 11 renewals and it can pay to focus on them for the race. Once again this category is in the majority of runners, however it does discount further runners, including outsiders Shenanigans and Indian Blessing.
10 of 11 winners were rated 105+. The only horse that wasn’t was Sabana Perdida in 2008, a raider from France. This removes half the field and leaves some of the shorter prices amongst the field and the highest rated horse is Threading at 114, not far behind are four horses at 109-110, including Veracious and Anna Nerium.
STALL AND DRAW ANALYSIS
The draw has a significant influence on results over shorter distances such as the 1m at Ascot. Similarly ground conditions play a key role in determining the optimal part of the track from which to race.
Looking below we can see that in firmer ground conditions such as Good-Firm, Good and Good-Soft the rule is “the higher the better”. Were the ground to be soft come Thursday, the bias swings more towards the center stalls 7-12.
We’re going to oppose the horses drawn in the first 5 stalls, which interestingly removes some of the favorites at the front of the market; Rawdaa (Stall 3), I Can Fly (Stall 2) and Pretty Baby (Stall 1).
10 of 11 winners have been priced 11/1 or lower. In fact, if you backed all horses priced 11/1 or less since 2008, you would have a record of 10/56 (17.86%), with 25 places.
The Top 2 in the odds market have a 7 of 22 (31.82%) record and show a level stakes profit if backing them since 2008. Based on the current markets it looks like Rawdaa from John Gosden and I Can Fly of Aidan O’Brien will fill the front two positions, but they both face a tricky stall draw.
The overall profile of a horse that we are looking for in this race:
- Placed in the Top 3 in their last race
- 4 years old
- Official Rating of 105+
- Drawn in Stall 6+
- Priced 11/1 or less
HORSES IN FOCUS
A horse that meets the trends and also brings in some strong form is Veracious from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. A Group 3 winner in the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown last season, Stoute will be hoping that she can improve to be competitive in Group 2 company here.
If the expected rain arrives by the time of the race on Wednesday it can be assumed Veracious can thrive with a bit of cut in the ground. In her career so far she’s never raced on soft ground, yet her pedigree would indicate the rain would suit more than some of the others heading the market.
She holds good pedigree too, her Sire is Frankel and was a multiple Group 1 winner both on Soft and Good to Soft ground and her Dam was Infallible, who placed on Good to Soft ground in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket.
To win: Veracious to Win @ 7/1
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