Established in 1843, the Royal Hunt Cup is a lucrative big field handicap race, netting prize money of £108,000 to the winner.
Tom Wilson and GIVEMEBET look at some key factors that could help to identify the winner.
8 of 11 previous winners placed in the top 4 in their last race, considering the size of the field this year where there are thirty runners, we will be focusing our analysis on runners that fit this profile. This still includes nearly two thirds of the field as nineteen horses came in the top 4 in their last outing.
4 year olds have the best record in the race and have likewise won 8 of 11 of the last renewals. It’s a trend that’s taken on even more prominence in recent years with the winners in 2018 (Settle for Bay), 2017 (Zhui Feng), 2016 (Portage) and 2015 (GM Hopkins) all being aged 4.
There are eight 4 year olds that will run, all of whom finished in the top four in their last race, including New Graduate and Cardsharp, who both actually won last time out.
A telling stat is that horses rated 106+ have a record of 0/45 in this race. We can start by discounting Cardsharp, Comin’ Through, Mitchum Swagger, Crazy Horse and Mordin.
Horses in the top 5 of the official ratings have an equally challenging record and are 0/56 since 2008.
DAYS SINCE LAST RUN
10 of 11 winners of this race had a run in the last 60 days. We’ll be discounting any horses coming into the race from a longer lay off period.
Horses carrying 9-6 or more in the handicap have a poor record, they’re 0/51 with only 6 places. This will take out a handful of horses which is mostly reflected in the betting, as they are bigger prices.
We are looking for a horse that fits the following trends:
- Placed in the top 4 in their previous race
- 4 year old
- Official Rating not above 106
- Had a run in the last 60 days
- Carrying less than 9-6 in weight
HORSES IN FOCUS
Given the sheer number of horses involved it’s a wide open race and it can pay to divide stakes between a couple of horses that fit the trends.
At attractive prices, the three horses below all meet the profile we’re looking for and can give us a run for our money.
Each Way Chance: Kings Field EW @ 18/1
Each Way Chance: Petrus EW @ 25/1
Each Way Chance: Red Starlight EW @ 33/1
All odds accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to fluctuation. T&C’s apply. 18+. www.begambleaware.orgNews Now - Sport News