Day Three of the Royal Ascot Festival kicks off with The Norfolk Stakes, a Group 2 race for 2-year-old horses, with £56,710 of prize money to the winner.
Once again Tom Wilson is back with his views in conjunction with GIVEMEBET.
The market is headed by Irish horse, Sunday Sovereign, for trainer Paddy Twomey and is owned by King Power Racing, the Racing outfit of former Leicester City FC Chairman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha.
So a win in this race would be an emotional result for both the Ownership and the Training Team. Sunday Sovereign also brings the hottest form into the race, having beaten Coventry Stakes winner Arizona.
US Trainer Wesley Ward has a strong record with 2 year-old horses when bringing them across the Atlantic for Royal Ascot. He’s 2/7 (28.57%) in the last 11 years, winning this race in 2013 with No Nay Never and 2018 with Shang Shang Shang.
This time out he runs Maven, a colt by Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh, highly regarded at home and he can be expected to run a big race.
Notable this year is the absence of Aidan O’Brien trained 2 year-olds at the front of the market. King Neptune is currently his most prominent horse at 12/1 and the price may well contract following stable mate Arizona’s victory in the Coventry Stakes on Day One.
Value hunters may note O’Brien’s record in the Norfolk, where he is 2/8, (25%), with 5 placed horses since 2008, picking up winners twice in the last 4 years, with Sioux Nation in 2017 and Waterloo Bridge in 2015.
In a fifteen runner field where horses have little form markers it's important to use all the information available as it can help identify not only potential winners, but also place opportunities.
Looking specifically at the trainer two year old recent performances is valuable, so when analyzing the runners from the last 20 days we can identify potentially strong stables. The table shows a comparison of Actual Wins vs. Expected Wins for trainers’ 2yos based on market price.
For example, if a horse was priced 2/1 you would expect it to have a 33% chance of winning.
Based on recent form there are positive indicators for Clive Cox, Jamie Osborne and Richard Fahey based on recent form, who run the following horses - Firepower (Cox), Emten (Osborne), Ventura Rebel (Fahey).
The O’Brien form would normally have been a concern heading into the festival, however both Arizona and Circus Maximus victories on Day One of the Festival means the above form can likely be discounted now.
HORSES IN FOCUS
Maven looks like the selection to side with here. Wesley Ward doesn’t usually bring horses over from America just for a canter around the track and with no Aidan O’Brien strong fancies in the betting, the US import can take the race this year.
Sunday Sovereign is the clear threat, with his 3 length win over Coventry winner Arizona rightfully staking his credentials at the front of the market.
To win: Maven @ 13/2 with GIVEMEBET
All odds accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to fluctuation. T&C’s apply. 18+. www.begambleaware.orgNews Now - Sport News