The Hampton Court Stakes is a 1m2f Group 3 race for 3-year-old horses. This year's renewal looks like a fascinating puzzle for pedigree buffs, with the five betting leaders coming from three of the elite sire lines emerging within Flat Racing.
Coolmore's super-sire Galileo and Banstead Manor's past St James’ Palace Stakes winner Kingman will have strong representation in the race. Not to be outdone, unbeaten Frankel also sires two runners in the form of Cap Francais and Old Glory.
Tom Wilson along with GIVEMEBET guides you through the analysis and what to look for in this enthralling race.
OFFICIAL RATING
9 of 11 winners have come into this race with an Official Rating of 103+. This year's renewal looks a particularly competitive affair with 11 of the 15 runners passing this threshold. Fox Chairman (No Rating), Getchagetchagetcha (95), Eightsome Reel (99), Old Glory (102) fall below and I believe they can be discounted based on this trend.
DRAW & STALL ANALYSIS
With the variable weather now leading to Soft Ground at Ascot, the draw could play a significant part in the result of races, especially over this relatively short, 1m2f trip.
When reviewing races at Ascot on Soft or Good-to-Soft ground over 1m2f, we can see indications of a bias to those drawn higher in the stalls, therefore we’ll be focusing on horses drawn in Stalls 7+.
Due to the above we will discounting Cape of Good Hope [1], Cap Francais [2], Global Spectrum [3], Fox Chairman [4], Buckhurst [5] and King Ottokar [6] from our thinking.
ODDS MARKET
9 of 11 winners have come from the leading four in the betting, so it can pay to focus on the front of the market. Horses currently filling those positions are Cape of Good Hope, Fox Chairman, Roseman and Sangarius
10 of 11 winners have also been priced at 8/1 or less in the SP market. In fact, only one horse from 86 runners in the last eleven years has won with odds higher - Pisco Sour winning at 20/1 in 2011. This leads me to discount any horse with odds higher than 8/1.
OVERALL PROFILE
We are looking for a horse that fits the following trends:
- Horses with an Official Rating 103+
- Drawn in Stall 7+
- Horses in the first four in the odds market
- 8/1 or lower in the Odds Market
HORSES IN FOCUS
Roseman, trained by Roger Varian, fits the profile that we are looking for here, he comes with impeccable breeding, courtesy of Kingman and from a Pivotal mare. It would be remiss however to ignore King of Comedy as he provides some of the strongest form on offer here.
To Win: Roseman @ 15/2 with GIVEMEBET
Great Scot is a horse that I’ve followed since his 2-year-old campaign and am convinced that Soft ground will see him excel. His best performance came in a Listed race on Heavy Ground at Haydock in 2018 and he could spring a surprise if taking to the ground better than others in the race.
Each Way Chance: Great Scot EW @ 12/1
All odds accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to fluctuation. T&C’s apply. 18+. www.begambleaware.org