Royal Ascot Day Four Preview - 2.30pm Albany Stakes

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Day Four at Royal Ascot kicks off with the Albany Stakes, a Group 3 6f race for Fillies.

US Trainer Wesley Ward will be hoping to make his trip over the Atlantic worthwhile as he saddles two horses at the front of the market in Nayibeth and Chilli Petin.

RECENT FORM

Of the Albany Stakes winners that have run in the UK & Ireland prior to the race, 9 of 10 were victorious.

This trend would be negative for 16 of the 25 runners we currently have entered in the Albany at this stage and this is reflected in the betting, as 6 horses with victories in their previous race amongst the top ten favorites.

STALL & DRAW ANALYSIS

A startling statistic is that each winner of the Albany in the last 11 years has come from the two higher segments of the draw. The first two quarters of the draw have a 0/100 record with only 10 places in that time.

This could present a challenge for the two runners representing US Trainer Wesley Ward, as favorite Nayibeth has been drawn in stall 1 and Chilli Petin drawn in 11, while second favorite Daahyeh will be fancying her chances coming from stall 22.

BETTING MARKET

The Albany Stakes can occasionally throw up some decent priced winners. In recent years we’ve had Different League winning at 20/1 in 2017, Brave Anna at 16/1 in 2016 and Cursory Glance at 14/1 in 2014.

11 of 11 winners have been priced at less than 20/1 in the SP Odds Market, so we'll be discounting any runners over this price as horses greater than 20/1 are 0/98 in the last 11 years, with only 2 places.

Currently there are 11 horses lower than this mark and it could pay to look past the front 2 in the odds market, as runners occupying these positions are only 3/23 in the last 11 years, yielding a strike rate of just 13.04%. Horses such as Silent Wave and Last Surprise fit the bill and both come off wins last time out. 

OVERALL PROFILE

  • Finished 1st in their last race
  • Stall in the high half of the draw
  • Less than 20/1 in the Odds Market

HORSES IN FOCUS

Two horses fit the trends for the race - Daahyeh @ 5/1 and Last Surprise 16/1, while Lil Grey only misses out due to her 22/1 odds, which could well be backed in by the time the race goes off. 

The form of Daahyeh looks strongest coming into the race and she comes here after only one run, winning a Novice Race at Newmarket in May.

Roger Varian’s filly took the prize that day and was followed home by subsequent Royal Ascot Queen Mary winner, Raffle Prize. She looks an attractive bet at 5/1.

To Win: Daahyeh @ 5/1

All odds accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to fluctuation. T&C’s apply. 18+. www.begambleaware.org

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