Royal Ascot Day Four Preview - 4.20pm Coronation Stakes

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1000 Guineas & Epsom Oaks heroine Hermosa heads the market for the 2019 Coronation Stakes.

She’s been the star of the fillies this season and aims to add another Group 1 to her already impressive haul.

Tom Wilson and GIVEMEBET take a look at the rest of the field to see if she can be beaten...

OFFICIAL RATINGS

10 of 11 winners of this race had an Official Rating of 108+. That would count against the chances of Main Edition (107), Twist n Shake (104), Watch Me (104), Happen (103) and Jubiloso (101), leaving just four runners that meet this criteria.

10 of 11 winners have come from the Top 5 in Official Ratings, which a positive for Hermosa (1st), Pretty Pollyanna (2nd), Castle Lady (3rd) and Just Wonderful (4th), fifth in the betting, Main Edition, has already been noted as being under the 108 rating necessary, so the top 4 are where the eyes should be drawn.

SPEED RATINGS

Speed Ratings can give us an insight into recent performance of the fillies. Here’s how I rate their recent runs.

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BETTING MARKET

The Odds Market is fairly reliable when it comes to finding the winner of this race. 10 of 11 winners have come from the first four in the betting, so it could pay to focus attention on Hermosa and Castle Lady, who lead the betting whilst filling the above trends.  

Frankie Dettori unsurprisingly has had followers today and his ride Twist n Shake has been backed into the top four this morning, but again doesn't meet the required rating marker.

10 of 11 winners have also been priced less than 8/1 in the SP Odds Market, leaving overwhelming odds-on favorite, Hermosa, as well as Jubiloso and Castle Lady, who fit the profile but are both significantly behind at 7/1.

OVERALL PROFILE

  • Official Rating of 108+
  • Top 5 in Official Ratings
  • First 4 in the Betting
  • Priced 8/1 or less

HORSES IN FOCUS

Hermosa is the selection here. I have her well clear on Speed Ratings and she fits the overall trends profile. Her victories in the 1000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks are the strongest pieces of form here and she can confirm her superiority as the best 3 year old filly in training with her performance today.

To Win: Hermosa @ 10/11 with GIVEMEBET

All odds accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to fluctuation. T&C’s apply. 18+. www.begambleaware.org

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