The Duke of Edinburgh Stakes brings Day Four of Royal Ascot to a close. The 1m4f handicap, yields £56,000 to the winner and with a field of 20 declared, this year's race looks as competitive as ever.
Arthurian Flame comes over from Ireland and would prove a popular winner for colorful syndicate Blackrock Racing.
Tom Wilson and GIVEMEBET look at the field to identify the contenders in this loaded race.
KEY TRAINERS
Berkshire based trainer Hughie Morrison has a good record in this race, with 2 winners from 3 runners since 2008 coming from Arab Dawn in 2015 and Cill Rialaig in 2010.
He sends two runners this year in the form of Corgi and Temple Church. The former would appear to be the stable selection and has Champion Jockey Jim Crowley taking the ride.
OFFICIAL RATINGS
Horses in the Top 2 on Official Ratings are 1 of 28 In recent years and I’d be siding with horses further down the handicap. This would count as a negative for Byron Flyer (105), Ben Vrackie (104), Baghdad (104) and Pivoine (104) as the foremost horses in the Official Ratings.
Horses rated in the range between 95-101 have the best profile for this race, with similar types winning 9 of 11 renewals.
DRAW
It could pay to focus on horses with a mid to high draw. Horses drawn between 1-5 are 0 of 46 in the last 11 runnings of the race. In fact, stalls 1-9 have only yielded 1 winner in this race from 82 runners since 2008.
Stalls 10-22 will be our focus, with horses drawn in the higher half winning 10 of the last 11 renewals and this includes some of the market leaders such as Baghdad and Fujaira Prince, the current market leaders.
BETTING MARKET
The past 11 winners have all come from the first 8 in the betting at starting prices. Horses outside the top 8 have a dreadful record, being 0/99 with 7 only places.
This is also reflected in the betting as the top eight horses are 12/1 or lower and from ninth onward the next lowest price is 22/1. Runners 6th-8th have a tough stalls draw, so might be best to avoid, of these outsiders Johnny Drama has the bet shot coming from stall 8.
OVERALL PROFILE
- Trained by Hughie Morrison is a plus
- Not in the Top 2 on Official Ratings
- Official Rating between 95-101
- Drawn in Stall 10-20
- Top 8 in the betting
HORSES IN FOCUS
Corgi and Fujaira Prince bring in form from a strong handicap in May at York and the latter got the better of Hughie Morrison’s horse that day, taking 2nd position by a neck. Corgi does get a 3lb swing in the weights today and can be expected to overturn that form, so when combined with the trainers’ record in the race, he looks a solid selection in a competitive field.
To win: Corgi @ 6/1 with GIVEMEBET
All odds accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to fluctuation. T&C’s apply. 18+. www.begambleaware.org