Royal Ascot Day Five Preview - 2.30pm Chesham Stakes

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The Chesham Stakes kicks off the fifth and final day of the Royal Ascot Festival.

A 7f race for 2-year-olds, it yields a £51,000 prize to the winner. We’ve seen superstar horses such as Churchill go on to progress from this race in the past, will the 2019 edition highlight a potential equine superstar?

Tom Wilson and GIVEMEBET analyse the race.

RECENT FORM

10 of 10 winners have placed in the first 4 in one of their last 3 runs. 10 of 10 winners have also placed in the top 4 of their previous outing, which would count as a negative against Montari of Andrew Baldings and Joker on Jack, this still leaves the rest of the field as contenders.

TRAINERS TO FOLLOW

As with the other 2 year old races at Royal Ascot, Aidan O’Brien brings a strong record into this race. He was a winner in 2011 with Maybe, 2016 with Churchill and in September in 2017 completed his 3/9 record.

Of key note is his record when being sent off as favorite, as he is 3/6 with a 50% strike in this race's history. This year he sends four horses in the form of Lope Y Fernandez, Year Of The Tiger, Harpocrates and United Front.

NUMBER OF RUNS

10 of 11 winners have had only 1 or 2 career starts prior to this race. Interestingly, horses with 3 or more career runs have a 0/25 record with only 3 places so it could pay to focus on the unexposed, lightly raced 2 year olds within the group.

Rose Of Kildare, the mount of Thursday hero Frankie Dettori, comes into the race having had 5 career starts already, so this could count against her.

DRAW

Stalls 1-8 have won 10 of the last 11 Chesham Stakes, with horses drawn 8+ performing poorly with only 1 winner from 68 runners in the past decade.

Interestingly, this presents a challenge for 3 of the 4 Ballydoyle runners, with Lope Y Fernandez, Year Of The Tiger and Harpocrates all being drawn high.

OVERALL PROFILE

  • Placed in the top 4 on their previous start
  • Trained by Aidan O’Brien is a positive
  • Less than 3 career runs
  • Drawn in Stalls 1-8

HORSES IN FOCUS

I’m inclined to take on Lope Y Fernandez here and go against the strong training record of Aidan O’Brien.

Pinatubo, a son of Sharmadal, brings an unbeaten record into the race, following two starts for the Charlie Appleby stable. He was impressive when winning at Epsom on Oaks day and the step up to 7f should further suit.

To Win: Pinatubo @ 7/2 with GIVEMEBET

All odds accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to fluctuation. T&C’s apply. 18+. www.begambleaware.org

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