Royal Ascot Day Five Preview - 3.40pm Hardwicke Stakes

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A Group 2 race over 1m4f, the Hardwicke Stakes showcases some of the very best middle distance horses in training.

The market is headed here by 2018 Epsom Derby winner, Masar, and he comes directly into this race following a year break since his Derby success. An interesting sub plot to the race will be whether Charlie Appleby’s star can bounce back to his 2018 form first time out.

Tom Wilson courtesy of GIVEMEBET dives into the race to see where the winner may be found.

KEY TRAINERS

Sir Michael Stoute has a very impressive record in this race. He’s 6 of 19 (31.58%) with runners in the last 10 years, winning it last year with Price of Wales victor, Crystal Ocean, and he also sends Mirage Dancer for this year's renewal.

The Hardwicke is another Royal Ascot race where Aidan O’Brien displays a strong past record, winning the race in 2017 with Idaho, in 2011 with Await the Dawn and in 2008 with Macarthur. He sends Southern France to the race this year.

JOCKEY

Strikingly, jockey Ryan Moore has quite an incredible record in the Hardwicke. He’s 5/11 (45.45%) in the last 11 years and he rides Southern France for Aidan O’Brien this year.

OFFICIAL RATINGS

Horses in the Top 5 of the Official Ratings tend to dominate proceedings and they’ve won each of the last 10 renewals. Masar, Defoe, Morando, Mirage Dancer and Salouen are the qualifiers this year.

BETTING MARKET

Favorites have a strong record in the Hardwicke and are 6 of 11 since 2008. If you had backed them all blind since then you would have yielded a profit. 

OVERALL PROFILE

  • Trained by Sir Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien is a positive
  • Top 5 on Official Ratings
  • Favorites have a strong record

HORSES IN FOCUS

Despite the trends profile, I’m inclined to follow the form on this one. Defoe sprung a surprise when winning the Coronation Cup at Epsom at the back end of May and I’ll be backing him to follow up again.

Roger Varian is a trainer who tends to improve his horses significantly after a gelding operation and Defoe runs here for the third time since gelding. He can compound his form against rivals Salouen  and Lah Ti Dar who follow him from that race.

To Win: Defore @ 4/1 with GIVEMEBET

All odds accurate at the time of publishing and are subject to fluctuation. T&C’s apply. 18+. www.begambleaware.org

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