Saturday racing: Top contenders at Newmarket

Newmarket Races

It’s the final day of the Newmarket July Festival and Tom Wilson along with GIVEMEBET take a look at the feature races from the July course.

2:20 Newmarket (July) 1m (July) bet365 Mile Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-100)

Mark Johnston is having an incredible Newmarket July Festival and it could pay to side with his horses here again today. He’s already had a host of winners, including Communique (11/1), Raffle Prize (9/2) and Kings Advice (10/1). The jockey booking of Ryan Moore is notable, when teaming up with Johnston he’s 5/22 23%.

VICTORY COMMAND runs for the Middleham trainer in this competitive 1-mile handicap and has to be worth an Each Way play.

EACH WAY: VICTORY COMMAND @ 7/1 with GIVEMEBET

2:55 Newmarket (July) 7f (July) bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo)

This is a race that Godolphin really seem to target. They’re 3/7 42% +11.25pts when running their horses here.

Charlie Appleby’s yard has provided most of the ammunition in recent years with Quorto winning in 2018 and Boytron winning in 2016. He’s 2/4 50% +6.25pts with runners in the race.

KINGS COMMAND has taken the same path as last years’ winner Quorto, winning the end June Novice Stakes race on the July course over 6f. Quorto had the same prep before going up to 7f here and winning by 4L.

TO WIN: KINGS COMMAND @ 7/4 with GIVEMEBET

3:30 Newmarket (July) 7f (July) bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)

The Bunbury Cup is a highly competitive 7f handicap worth over £74,000 to the winner.

Horses aged between 4-6 have won 11 from the last 11 renewals. I’d take a horse aged 7 or older as a negative here as they are 0/29 in the last 10 years. This would count as a negative for the four older horses in the race; So Beloved, Shady McCoy, Burnt Sugar and Aces.

Taking a look at the weights, horses outside the top ten in the weights have won 7/10 renewals. I think that’s significant enough for us to cut out a large proportion of contenders in the race.

That leaves me only with three contenders; Rip Orf, Zap and Hajjam.

Zap is a horse who won a handicap at Leopardstown rated 95 last year and he gets in here with an Official Rating of 91. Fitting the trends and with a low weight, he could run a big race.

EACH WAY: ZAP @ 25/1 with GIVEMEBET

4:40 Newmarket (July) 6f (July) Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)

The July Cup brings us to the feature race of the final day of the Newmarket July Festival, netting a cool £283,550 to the winner it promises to be an intriguing contest this year. Commonwealth Cup winner Advertise heads the market for the Martin Meade yard.

10 of the last 11 winners of the July Cup have carried an Official Rating of 110+ going into the race. The only winner not matching that profile being Marchand D’Or, a French raider in 2008.

Using this statistic, we can knock out some of the outsiders in So Perfect, Glorious Journey and Major Jumbo.

The Top Rated horse on Official Ratings has won 6/11 renewals, giving a win strike rate of 42.86% and a level stakes profit to Industry SP of +13.75pts. A positive for the joint top rated horses in this years’ renewal; Advertise and Dream of Dreams. Advertise gets a further boost with the statistic that favourites have a decent record in this race, they’re 4/10 +4.75pts in the last 10 years.

ADVERTISE just looked a different level of horse, compared to the rest of the field in the Commonwealth Cup. If he can continue that progressive upward curve then he can take the spoils again today.

TO WIN: ADVERTISE @ 3/1 with GIVEMEBET

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