Newbury Saturday Preview

Newbury’s Super Sprint race meeting brings us the highlight of the Saturday cards this week. Tom Wilson in collaboration with GIVEMEBET takes a look through the feature races on the card; The Steventon Stakes, The Hackwood Stakes & the Weatherbys Super Sprint, including a 100/1 selection in the Super Sprint.

1:50 Newbury 1m2f The Steventon Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

FOX CHAIRMAN heads the market here for King Power racing, currently at 11/10 with GIVEMEBET. Trained by Andrew Balding, this son of Kingman has managed to find trouble in each of his last two races, beaten 2 lengths by Hampton Court Stakes winner Sangarius at Royal Ascot last time out and by subsequent St James’ Palace winner Circus Maximus in the Dee Stakes at Chester at the back end of May. He brings the best form into this race and is a worthy favourite.

Charlie Appleby and Godolphin are a powerful combination when sending runners here, and they bring FIRST NATION to the Steventon Stakes this year. In searching for a horse to oppose FOX CHAIRMAN, I’m inclined to line up on his behalf.

Appleby is 2/3 66% +2.36pts in the race since 2014, winning it with Emotionless (2018) and Scottish (2016), with the only horse that didn't win the race, Vancouverite in 2014 finishing 2nd by a short head.

Godolphin are 3/10 in the race with horses in their ownership. Royal Empire winning the race for Saeed Bin Suroor in 2013, plus the two of the Appleby horses above.

Both Godolphin and Appleby will be hoping that this race will prove to be a strong fit for FIRST NATION as it has proven to be for many of their charges’ in the past.

TO WIN: FIRST NATION @ 4/1 with GIVEMEBET

3:00 Newbury 6f Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

James Fanshawe’s THE TIN MAN heads the market for the Hackwood Stakes this year, a race that he won in 2016. Now a 7-year-old, Fanshaw will be hoping that THE TIN MAN can continue his impressive record in the sprinting division and take the honours here.

In recent years, the Hackwood Stakes has been a race where Hamdan Al Maktoum’s Shadwell Racing operation have fared very well. Al Maktoum is 2/5 40% +7pts in the race with horses under his ownership, winning this race with Yafta in 2018 and Heeraat in 2013.

Trainer Charlie Hills is 2/4 50% +5pts in this race since 2015, winning it with Magical Memory (2017) and Strath Burn (2015). Hills & Al Maktoum combine today to send KHAADEM to the race, following a 7th place finish in the Commonwealth Cup last time out. A 3-year-old who has the potential for significant improvement, I will be siding with the younger unexposed horse in KHAADEM against THE TIN MAN.

TO WIN: KHAADEM @ 11/2 with GIVEMEBET

3:40 Newbury 5f (5f34y) Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (Class 2) (2yo)

The 3:40 brings us to the most valuable race of the day, the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes, a big field stakes race for 2-year-olds, worth a grand total of £122,295 to the winner.

VENTURA REBEL for Richard Fahey’s yard has been incredibly strong in the betting all week for this.

Starting at 5/2 on Monday, he’s now priced 11/8 in the markets with GIVEMEBET. He comes here following a neck 2nd in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and with an Official Rating of 107, puts him well clear of the field in terms of Official Ratings. A negative perhaps for VENTURA REBEL is that only 1/6 of the last top rated horses have ended up winning the Super Sprint. (Tiggy Wiggy in 2014)

Fahey also has a strong record in the race, having won more renewals since 2008 than any other trainer.

That said, taking 11/8 on 2-year-old in a big field sprint race is not something I’d ever been inclined to do. So we will look elsewhere for some value.

The draw is always a significant factor in sprint races, even more so those with larger fields. By comparing actual market returns of each stall compared to those expected based on market price we can get a picture of which runners could benefit from a positive stall allocation.

The chart would suggest a bias toward the higher half of the stalls, with a particular benefit between Stalls 13-16. Stalls 13-21 have given us each of the winners since 2014, with Tiggy Wiggy (2014), Lathom (2015), Mrs Danvers (2016), Bengali Boys (2017) and Ginger Nut (2018). Never In Paris, Emten, Odyssey Girl, Show Me Show Me, Charlemaine, Baileys in Bloom, Manolith, Bacchalot and Dearly Beloved could be the horses to benefit this year.

Both Keith Dalgleish and Richard Spencer are running at a good ratio with their two year olds in the past three weeks, so I’m inclined to side with their horses in search of some Each Way Value.