QBE supercomputer predicts the 2019 Rugby World Cup


A supercomputer at QBE Business Insurance has predicted the entire 2019 Rugby World Cup.

All four Home Nations are expected to progress into the quarter-finals of the tournament. In fact England, Ireland and Wales have been tagged to win all of their group stage matches, beating the likes of France, Scotland and Australia respectively.

New Zealand, naturally, have been earmarked as the tournament favourites by the supercomputer. The All Blacks have been marked at a 50% probability to win their third successive Rugby World Cup title.

Out of the Home Nations, Wales are tipped as the favourites, given a healthy 11% chance to win their first ever Rugby World Cup. England are predicted third overall at 8% to repeat their success of 2003.

Australia and South Africa have been given a respective 4% and 3% chance at winning the tournament. Ireland and France are the final teams on the list with any hope, according to the QBE supercomputer, at 1%.

This leaves Scotland, along with 12 other nations, as having no chance at winning the tournament, according to QBE. The supercomputer, however, has given Scotland a 4% chance of reaching the final.

In fact, QBE have given Ireland and Wales the best chance of reaching the final out of the Home Nations. Both are marked at a 26% probability of reaching the final, whilst England’s chances of a fourth final are out at 18%.

The outcomes of each game is predicted via 10 years of historical data, the impact on all 20 teams playing home or away and the international experience of each captain.

Each match is simulated with probabilities and random numbers to generate an outcome. QBE have modelled the tournament 3,750 times to give a fair representation on how each team will fare in Japan and its probability.


The supercomputer functions via a “complex mathematical formula”, whose regular 9-5 job is predicting the impact of natural disasters such as earthquakes.

Matthew Crane, a director at QBE, stated, “We live in unpredictable times and while we can put all the science in the world into predicting the future, we can never be 100% sure.

“The Home Nations have a real chance of going far in the tournament and a final against the All Blacks is not a foregone conclusion. Anything can happen, which is why with the right preparation the title is for the taking.”

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