Champions League draw: Who is each side most likely to face in last-16?

We now know the 16 sides that will make up the Champions League knockout stages.

There’s plenty of familiar names with Barcelona, Real Madrid, Juventus and holders Liverpool are coming through their group relatively unscathed.

In fact, all 16 clubs are from the top five European leagues.

But we’ve already had a few casualties with last season’s semi-finalists Ajax and Serie A leaders Inter Milan dropping into the Europa League.

Attentions now turn to Monday’s draw.

Who will face who in the last-16?

Group winners will face group runners-up and they will play the second-leg at home. Clubs from the same nation can’t face each other and you can’t face the club that also progressed through your group.

Got it? Good.

While there is only a handful of sides each club can face, the chances of drawing one team is greater than drawing another.

You need a masters in maths to work them out but, luckily, a graph on Reddit has figured everything out.

Take a look:

Let’s break it down for you:

PSG’s possible opponents:

Atletico Madrid – 18.41%
Chelsea – 18.41%
Spurs – 17.33%
Dortmund – 16.99%
Atalanta – 14.54%
Napoli – 14.54%

Bayern Munich’s possible opponents:

Chelsea – 18.89%
Atletico Madrid – 18.69%
Real Madrid – 18.08%
Atalanta – 15.04%
Napoli – 15.04%
Lyon – 14.26%

Manchester City’s possible opponents:

Atletico Madrid – 22.41%
Real Madrid – 21.58%
Dortmund – 20.62%
Napoli – 18.42%
Lyon – 16.97%

Juventus’ possible opponents:

Chelsea – 21.67%
Real Madrid – 21.58%
Spurs – 20.71%
Dortmund – 20.02%
Lyon – 16.47%

Liverpool’s possible opponents:

Atletico Madrid – 22.41%
Real Madrid – 21.58%
Dortmund – 20.62%
Atalanta – 18.42%
Lyon – 16.97%

Barcelona’s possible opponents:

Chelsea – 23.28%
Spurs – 22.01%
Atalanta – 18.55%
Napoli – 18.55%
Lyon – 17.61%

RB Leipzig’s possible opponents:

Atletico Madrid – 18.08%
Chelsea – 17.98%
Real Madrid – 17.61%
Spurs – 17.33%
Atalanta – 14.5%
Napoli – 14.5%

Valencia’s possible opponents:

Spurs – 22.62%
Dortmund – 21.76%
Atalanta – 18.94%
Napoli – 18.94%
Lyon – 17.74%

Real Madrid’s possible opponents:

Manchester City – 21.58%
Liverpool – 21.58%
Juventus – 21.14%
Bayern Munich – 18.08%
RB Leipzig – 17.61%

Spurs’ possible opponents:

Valencia – 22.62%
Barcelona – 22.01%
Juventus – 20.71%
PSG – 17.33%
RB Leipzig – 17.33%

Atalanta’s possible opponents:

Valencia – 18.94%
Barcelona – 18.55%
Liverpool – 18.42%
Bayern Munich – 15.04%
PSG – 14.54%
RB Leipzig – 14.5%

Atletico Madrid’s possible opponents:

Manchester City – 22.41%
Liverpool – 22.41%
Bayern Munich – 18.69%
PSG – 18.41%
RB Leipzig – 18.08%

Napoli’s possible opponents:

Valencia – 18.94%
Barcelona – 18.55%
Manchester City – 18.42%
Bayern Munich – 15.04%
PSG – 14.54%
RB Leipzig – 14.5%

Dortmund’s possible opponents:

Valencia – 21.76%
Liverpool – 20.62%
Manchester City – 20.62%
Juventus – 20.02%
PSG – 16.99%

Lyon’s possible opponents:

Valencia – 17.74%
Barcelona – 17.61%
Manchester City – 16.97%
Liverpool – 16.97%
Juventus – 16.47%
Bayern Munich – 14.26%

Chelsea’s possible opponents:

Barcelona – 23.28%
Juventus – 21.67%
Bayern Munich – 18.89%
PSG – 18.18%
RB Leipzig – 17.98%

CONCLUSION:

Whatever the draw produces on Monday, we’re in for an incredible last-16 of the Champions League.

And judging by the percentages, we could have Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid and Barcelona vs Chelsea – which would be incredible.

After finishing second in their group, Real Madrid are almost certainly going to get a tough last-16 tie with Manchester City, Liverpool, Juventus, Bayern Munich or RB Leipzig waiting for them. Zinedine Zidane and co. might be praying for a clash against Leipzig.

Spurs themselves could get fortunate despite finishing second in their group with them most likely to draw Valencia – a tie Jose Mourinho’s side will surely be favourites for.

Whatever the eight ties, we already can’t wait for the Champions League to return in February.

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