Champions League: Data analysts work out every club’s chances of winning 2019/20 competition

Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool - UEFA Champions League  Final

We now know the 16 clubs that will be competing in the knockout stage of the 2019/20 Champions League.

For the first time ever, the last-16 will only feature teams from Europe’s big five leagues - the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1.

There was little to be decided on the final night of the group stage, with only two issues to be resolved.

Atalanta and Atletico Madrid both secured their passage into the next rounds, with the Italian side going through despite losing their first three games.

Now we’re down to 16 and an exciting series of knockout contests await.

Liverpool managed to secure top spot in Group E on Tuesday but no team looked better in the group stage than Bayern Munich, who won all six matches and finished with a goal difference of +19.

Manchester City weren’t at their scintillating best at times but, given their situation in the league, may just prioritise European glory, while Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain are also dangerous.


It’s incredibly difficult to predict the outcome of the competition but data analysts from FiveThirtyEight have provided a hint of what’s to come.

They’ve crunched the numbers to assess each team’s probability of reaching the quarter-final, semi-final, final and winning the Champions League.

Pep Guardiola’s City are given a 24% chance of winning it, while Bayern Munich are in second place with 19%.

Take a look at the full forecast below:

Manchester City

To win Champions League: 24%

Bayern Munich 

To win Champions League: 19%


To win Champions League: 15%


To win Champions League: 9%


To win Champions League: 9%

Real Madrid

To win Champions League: 6%


To win Champions League: 3%


To win Champions League: 3%

RB Leipzig

To win Champions League: 3%

Atletico Madrid

To win Champions League: 3%


To win Champions League: 2%

Borussia Dortmund

To win Champions League: 1%


To win Champions League: <1%


To win Champions League: <1%


To win Champions League: <1%


To win Champions League: <1%

Chelsea v Arsenal - UEFA Europa League Final

So FiveThirtyEight believe this could be Man City’s year.

The Champions League has proven to be more difficult to win than perhaps Sheikh Mansour imagined when he took over the club in 2008, but there’s no question that City can beat anybody on their day.

Bayern Munich are second-favourites after an impressive showing in the group stage.

Liverpool are given a 15% chance of defending their trophy but this is where the numbers start to drop off, with PSG and Barcelona both with a 9% probability of becoming European champions.

Cristiano Ronaldo won’t enjoy seeing Juventus with just a 3% probability.

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