Europa League: Data analysts work out every club’s chances of winning the tournament

Manchester United v Partizan: Group L - UEFA Europa League

The draw for the Europa League Round of 32 will take place on Monday following Thursday’s final group matches.

All five British clubs have booked their place in the hat for next week’s draw.

Arsenal, Celtic and Manchester United are among the seeded teams, while Rangers and Wolves are two of the 16 unseeded teams.

This is also the stage where the eight teams who finished third in their respective Champions League groups drop down into the Europa League and will compete in the knockout rounds.

But which clubs have the best chance of being crowned the 2019/20 Europa League winners?

Well, data analysts at FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers and here are the results…

1. Ajax

To make Round of 16: 68%
To make quarter-finals: 44%
To make semi-finals: 27%
To make final: 16%
To win Europa League: 9%

Possible opponents: APOEL, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg, Wolves

Chelsea FC v AFC Ajax: Group H - UEFA Champions League

2. Bayer Leverkusen

To make Round of 16: 66%
To make quarter-finals: 42%
To make semi-finals: 26%
To make final: 15%
To win Europa League: 8%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Espanyol, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

3. Red Bull Salzburg

To make Round of 16: 65%
To make quarter-finals: 41%
To make semi-finals: 25%
To make final: 14%
To win Europa League: 8%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg, Wolves

4. Manchester United

To make Round of 16: 66%
To make quarter-finals: 42%
To make semi-finals: 25%
To make final: 15%
To win Europa League: 8%

Possible opponents: APOEL, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg

FBL-EUR-C3-MAN UTD-ALKMAAR

5. Inter Milan

To make Round of 16: 65%
To make quarter-finals: 40%
To make semi-finals: 23%
To make final: 13%
To win Europa League: 7%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg, Wolves

6. Sevilla

To make Round of 16: 64%
To make quarter-finals: 39%
To make semi-finals: 23%
To make final: 13%
To win Europa League: 7%

Possible opponents: AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg, Wolves

7. Getafe

To make Round of 16: 66%
To make quarter-finals: 40%
To make semi-finals: 23%
To make final: 13%
To win Europa League: 7%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg

8. Benfica

To make Round of 16: 62%
To make quarter-finals: 37%
To make semi-finals: 21%
To make final: 11%
To win Europa League: 6%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Wolfsburg, Wolves

9. FC Porto

To make Round of 16: 59%
To make quarter-finals: 34%
To make semi-finals: 18%
To make final: 9%
To win Europa League: 5%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Wolfsburg, Wolves

10. AS Roma

To make Round of 16: 58%
To make quarter-finals: 33%
To make semi-finals: 17%
To make final: 9%
To win Europa League: 4%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Espanyol, Gent, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

11. Wolves

To make Round of 16: 60%
To make quarter-finals: 33%
To make semi-finals: 17%
To make final: 9%
To win Europa League: 4%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Basel, Benfica, Celtic, Espanyol, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

12. Arsenal

To make Round of 16: 56%
To make quarter-finals: 30%
To make semi-finals: 15%
To make final: 7%
To win Europa League: 4%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg

FBL-EUR-C3-ARSENAL-FRANKFURT

13. Olympiacos

To make Round of 16: 53%
To make quarter-finals: 26%
To make semi-finals: 13%
To make final: 6%
To win Europa League: 3%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Espanyol, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

14. Eintracht Frankfurt

To make Round of 16: 56%
To make quarter-finals: 28%
To make semi-finals: 13%
To make final: 6%
To win Europa League: 3%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Espanyol, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

15. Club Brugge

To make Round of 16: 52%
To make quarter-finals: 26%
To make semi-finals: 12%
To make final: 5%
To win Europa League: 2%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Espanyol, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

16. Wolfsburg

To make Round of 16: 54%
To make quarter-finals: 27%
To make semi-finals: 12%
To make final: 5%
To win Europa League: 2%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Espanyol, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

VfL Wolfsburg v AS Saint-Etienne: Group I - UEFA Europa League

17. AZ Alkmaar

To make Round of 16: 51%
To make quarter-finals: 24%
To make semi-finals: 10%
To make final: 4%
To win Europa League: 2%

Possible opponents: Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Espanyol, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

18. Shakhtar Donetsk

To make Round of 16: 49%
To make quarter-finals: 22%
To make semi-finals: 10%
To make final: 4%
To win Europa League: 2%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Espanyol, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

19. Basel

To make Round of 16: 49%
To make quarter-finals: 22%
To make semi-finals: 10%
To make final: 4%
To win Europa League: 2%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg, Wolves

20. Rangers

To make Round of 16: 46%
To make quarter-finals: 19%
To make semi-finals: 8%
To make final: 3%
To win Europa League: 1%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Espanyol, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Salzburg, Sevilla

Rangers FC v BSC Young Boys: Group G - UEFA Europa League

21. Celtic

To make Round of 16: 43%
To make quarter-finals: 18%
To make semi-finals: 8%
To make final: 3%
To win Europa League: 1%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg, Wolves

22. Espanyol

To make Round of 16: 44%
To make quarter-finals: 18%
To make semi-finals: 7%
To make final: 3%
To win Europa League: 1%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg, Wolves

23. LASK Linz

To make Round of 16: 44%
To make quarter-finals: 18%
To make semi-finals: 7%
To make final: 3%
To win Europa League: 1%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Wolfsburg, Wolves

24. Malmo

To make Round of 16: 38%
To make quarter-finals: 13%
To make semi-finals: 4%
To make final: 1%
To win Europa League: <1%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg, Wolves

25. Braga

To make Round of 16: 38%
To make quarter-finals: 13%
To make semi-finals: 4%
To make final: 1%
To win Europa League: <1%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Wolfsburg

26. Sporting

To make Round of 16: 37%
To make quarter-finals: 13%
To make semi-finals: 4%
To make final: 1%
To win Europa League: <1%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Celtic, Espanyol, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, Malmö, Manchester United, Salzburg, Sevilla

FBL-EUR-C3-SPORTING-EINDHOVEN

27. Ludogorets

To make Round of 16: 36%
To make quarter-finals: 12%
To make semi-finals: 4%
To make final: 1%
To win Europa League: <1%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

28. Copenhagen

To make Round of 16: 33%
To make quarter-finals: 11%
To make semi-finals: 3%
To make final: <1%
To win Europa League: <1%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Espanyol, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

29. Gent

To make Round of 16: 33%
To make quarter-finals: 10%
To make semi-finals: 3%
To make final: <1%
To win Europa League: <1%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolves

30. Apoel Nicosia

To make Round of 16: 34%
To make quarter-finals: 10%
To make semi-finals: 3%
To make final: <1%
To win Europa League: <1%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Celtic, Espanyol, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg

31. Istanbul Basaksehir

To make Round of 16: 33%
To make quarter-finals: 10%
To make semi-finals: 3%
To make final: <1%
To win Europa League: <1%

Possible opponents: APOEL, AZ Alkmaar, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg, Wolves

32. CFR Cluj

To make Round of 16: 22%
To make quarter-finals: 5%
To make semi-finals: <1%
To make final: <1%
To win Europa League: <1%

Possible opponents: Ajax, Arsenal, Basel, Benfica, Braga, Espanyol, Gent, Internazionale Milano, İstanbul Başakşehir, LASK, Malmö, Manchester United, Porto, Salzburg, Sevilla

Analysis - GiveMeSport’s Rob Swan says:

It’s no shock that Ajax are rated as the team with the best chance of winning this season’s Europa League.

The Eredivisie title holders only missed out on qualification for the Champions League by a single point and caught the eye in Europe’s premier competition, scoring 12 goals in six games.

They are clearly the team to beat.

On a similar note, RB Salzburg impressed in the Champions League group stages, netting a hugely impressive 16 goals - mainly through their exciting young striker Erling Haaland.

SSC Napoli v RB Salzburg: Group E - UEFA Champions League

Bayer Leverkusen weren’t quite as impressive but will still be a major threat heading into the latter stages of the Europa League.

Man Utd have found some form of late, but can they keep up their excellent recent form between now and the end of the season? There’s still a big question mark hanging over Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side but they certainly have talented players in their ranks.

Manchester United v Partizan: Group L - UEFA Europa League

It’s slightly surprising that Getafe have been given the same chance of winning the tournament as both Inter Milan and Sevilla.

Likewise, it’s rather eye-opening to see Wolves have the same chance of winning the Europa League as both AS Roma and Arsenal.

For our money, we’d back the favourites Ajax to lift the trophy in Gdansk on May 27.

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