How the 2019/20 Premier League table would look if every refereeing decision was correct

Arsenal FC v Southampton FC - Premier League

Imagine a world where every decision was correct in football.

That's what the introduction of VAR is trying to achieve but, sadly, at the moment it is way off the mark.

But how would the Premier League look if every refereeing decision was perfect?

ESPN have been working with the London School of Economics to try and answer that question.

They've analysed every minute of every game this season and come up with a 'luck index'.

Their luck index comprises of a number of factors including: goals correctly and incorrectly given, goals scored after allotted time and red cards correctly or incorrectly issued.

And the table would look very different had luck not been a factor this season...

1. Liverpool | Points: 56 | Points difference: -2 | Position difference: 0

2. Leicester | Points: 45 | Points difference: 0 | Position difference: 0

3. Manchester City | Points: 42 | Points difference: -2 | Position difference: 0

4. Chelsea | Points: 36 | Points difference: 0 | Position difference: 0

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5. Arsenal | Points: 36 | Points difference: +9 | Position difference +5

6. Manchester United | Points: 34 | Points difference +3 | Position difference: -1

7. Wolves | Points: 33 | Points difference: +3 | Position difference: 0

8. Tottenham | Points: 29 | Points difference: -1 | Position difference: -2

Middlesbrough FC v Tottenham Hotspur - FA Cup Third Round

9. Watford | Points: 26 | Points difference: +7 | Position difference: +10

10. Sheffield United | Points: 25 | Points difference: -4 | Position difference: -2

11. Southampton | Points: 25 | Points difference: 0 | Position difference: +1

12. Newcastle | Points: 25 | Points difference: 0 | Position difference: +1

Sheffield United v Newcastle United - Premier League

13. Everton | Points: 24 | Points difference: -1 | Position difference: -2

14. Bournemouth | Points: 23 | Points difference: +3 | Position difference: +4

15. Crystal Palace | Points: 22 | Points difference: -6 | Position difference: -6

16. Burnley | Points: 22 | Points difference: 0 | Position difference: -1

Burnley FC v Aston Villa - Premier League

17. West Ham | Points: 21 | Points difference: -1 | Position difference: -1

18. Aston Villa | Points: 20 | Points difference: -1 | Position difference: -1

19. Brighton | Points: 17 | Points difference: -7 | Position difference: -5

20. Norwich | Points: 15 | Points difference: +1 | Position difference 0

Table credit: ESPN

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So, had every decision in the Premier League been correct this season, very little would change with the top four.

Liverpool would be two points worse off but would still retain a healthy 11-point lead over second place Leicester.

Chelsea currently occupy fourth spot and hold a five-point advantage over Manchester United.

But, if there was no luck involved, it would actually be Arsenal contending for a Champions League spot.

The Gunners have suffered badly with refereeing decisions this season.

Leicester City v Liverpool FC - Premier League

According to the study, they should be nine points better off and level on points with Chelsea, making them the unluckiest team in the league.

Watford have also been extremely unlucky. They are currently 19th but would be a whopping seven points and 10 places higher with the correct refereeing decisions.

Among those to have benefited from correct refereeing decisions are Crystal Palace and Brighton.

Roy Hodgson's side are currently sitting pretty in the top half but have had six points given to them by incorrect decisions.

Brighton are currently four points above the relegation zone, but the study believes they should be sitting in 19th and in the thick of a relegation scrap.

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