The Premier League table based on xG stats - Liverpool don't win the title

The xG table doesn't look good for Liverpool fans

Liverpool are champions of England. 

Jurgen Klopp’s side will finally get their hands on the Premier League trophy during Wednesday night’s presentation. 

Their success was confirmed back in June, when Chelsea beat Manchester City to end the title race. 

Despite looking far from their best since being crowned champions – Liverpool have lost two and drawn one of their last five games – there’s no doubt they are worthy winners. 

With two games to play, Klopp’s side are a ridiculous 18 points clear of City in second place and 30 points clear of third-placed Chelsea. 

Many expected Liverpool to finally win the Premier League this season, but no one really expected them to run away with it like this. 

In fact, if the table was based purely on the expected goals (xG) statistic, the Reds wouldn’t even be champions. 

Liverpool wouldn't be champions if football was played on paper

Just in case you’re not aware of how xG works, let’s break it down. 

According to talkSPORT expected goals is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

Every shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt. The higher the xG value, the more likely a goal will be scored from that shot. 

xG goals is used to determine a statistical winner

The xG value of every shot is then used to calculate the expected goals in a match and thus, determine a statistically likely winner. 

So, let’s take a look at what the Premier League table looks like after 36 game weeks, based on expected goals:

The PL would look very different based on xG

Now, that’s very interesting reading. 

As you can see, according to the stats, Manchester City should be Premier League champions. Their expected points at this stage of the season is 80, ahead of Liverpool’s 72. 

In reality, of course, Klopp’s side have defied statistics and picked up 21 more points than expected. 

Liverpool have defied that stats

It’s not just the title race that has changed too. Newcastle are rock bottom of the table and facing relegation, as are Norwich and Aston Villa. 

Considering the Toon are actually in 13th place and well clear of the drop, it’s certainly interesting to see the xG stats suggest they should be in the Championship next season. 

Elsewhere, Arsenal and Tottenham are scrapping it out for a top-half finish, rather than European football, while Leicester would miss out on the Champions League on xG. 

Arsnel and Spurs would be battling it out for mid-table

Things really would look very different if the game was decided on statistics. Let’s just be thankful that football isn’t played on paper!  

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