Liverpool, Barcelona, Real Madrid: Which team is most likely to win the 2020-21 Champions League?

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The 2020-21 Champions League group stage draw took place on Thursday and there are some mouth-watering ties to look forward to.

Manchester United v Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich v Atletico Madrid and, of course, Lionel Messi’s Barcelona v Cristiano Ronaldo’s Real Madrid are among the games football fans are most looking forward to.

But which teams are most likely to win this season’s Champions League?

Data analysts at FiveThirtyEight have already crunched the numbers, deciding the probability that each team will reach the Round of 16, the quarter-finals, the semi-final and the final itself.

Finally, each team has been given a percentage chance of winning the tournament.

First of all, let's take another look at the eight groups...

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And now for every team's chances...

Bayern Munich

Make Round of 16: 89%
Make quarter-finals: 68%
Make semi-finals: 49%
Make final: 33%
Win final: 21%

Reigning champions Bayern Munich are this season’s Champions League favourites, according to the guys are FiveThirtyEight. It’s hard to argue with that.

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Manchester City

Make Round of 16: 95%
Make quarter-finals: 69%
Make semi-finals: 45%
Make final: 28%
Win final: 16%

Will this finally be the season Pep Guardiola wins the Champions League with Man City? The data claims they have a better chance than any English club.

Liverpool

Make Round of 16: 92%
Make quarter-finals: 63%
Make semi-finals: 38%
Make final: 22%
Win final: 12%

Jurgen Klopp’s formidable team will surely be there or there about again this season.

Barcelona

Make Round of 16: 94%
Make quarter-finals: 63%
Make semi-finals: 37%
Make final: 20%
Win final: 11%

After *that* humiliating 8-2 defeat against Bayern Munich, Barcelona will be desperate to make amends in this season’s competition.

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PSG

Make Round of 16: 82%
Make quarter-finals: 52%
Make semi-finals: 30%
Make final: 16%
Win final: 8%

Beaten finalists last season, PSG will be aiming to go one step further this term.

Real Madrid

Make Round of 16: 78%
Make quarter-finals: 49%
Make semi-finals: 27%
Make final: 14%
Win final: 7%

Given Real Madrid and Zinedine Zidane’s pedigree in the Champions League, seven per cent seems very low.

Atletico Madrid

Make Round of 16: 67%
Make quarter-finals: 37%
Make semi-finals: 19%
Make final: 9%
Win final: 4%

On their night, Diego Simeone’s side are capable of beating any team in Europe, as they proved last season by knocking out Liverpool.

Borussia Dortmund

Make Round of 16: 77%
Make quarter-finals: 39%
Make semi-finals: 17%
Make final: 7%
Win final: 3%

With Erling Haaland and Jadon Sancho (if he stays) in their ranks, Borussia Dortmund won’t fear anyone this season.

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Chelsea

Make Round of 16: 81%
Make quarter-finals: 40%
Make semi-finals: 17%
Make final: 7%
Win final: 3%

Frank Lampard’s star-studded Chelsea side only have a three per cent chance of lifting the European Cup.

Inter Milan

Make Round of 16: 61%
Make quarter-finals: 30%
Make semi-finals: 14%
Make final: 6%
Win final: 2%

A team full of quality players, Inter Milan should make the Round of 16 at the very least.

Manchester United

Make Round of 16: 58%
Make quarter-finals: 29%
Make semi-finals: 13%
Make final: 5%
Win final: 2%

Man Utd are not the European powerhouse of yesteryear but they have beaten PSG in this competition under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

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RB Leipzig

Make Round of 16: 58%
Make quarter-finals: 29%
Make semi-finals: 13%
Make final: 6%
Win final: 2%

In the same group as Man Utd and PSG, RB Leipzig have their work cut out to reach the knockout stages.

Juventus

Make Round of 16: 77%
Make quarter-finals: 33%
Make semi-finals: 13%
Make final: 5%
Win final: 2%

Cristiano Ronaldo was signed by Juve to help them become European champions for the first time since 1996. Is this the season the Portuguese legend inspires his current employers to glory?

Sevilla

Make Round of 16: 71%
Make quarter-finals: 30%
Make semi-finals: 11%
Make final: 4%
Win final: 1%

Last season’s Europa League winners, Sevilla are always a threat on the European stage.

RB Salzburg

Make Round of 16: 40%
Make quarter-finals: 18%
Make semi-finals: 8%
Make final: 3%
Win final: 1%

In the same group as Bayern and Atletico, you have to fear for RB Salzburg’s chances of reaching the knockout rounds.

Atalanta

Make Round of 16: 59%
Make quarter-finals: 23%
Make semi-finals: 9%
Make final: 3%
Win final: 1%

Serie A’s entertainers reached last season’s Champions League quarter-finals.

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Zenit

Make Round of 16: 59%
Make quarter-finals: 22%
Make semi-finals: 8%
Make final: 3%
Win final: <1%

Russian side Zenit find themselves in the same group as Dortmund, Lazio and Club Brugge.

FC Porto

Make Round of 16: 46%
Make quarter-finals: 16%
Make semi-finals: 6%
Make final: 2%
Win final: <1%

In Group C with Man City, Porto’s best chance of reaching the Round of 16 is by finishing second above Olympiacos and Marseille.

Ajax

Make Round of 16: 41%
Make quarter-finals: 14%
Make semi-finals: 4%
Make final: 3%
Win final: <1%

Ajax aren’t the force they were during the 2018-19 campaign but the Dutch side still boast a talented group of players.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Make Round of 16: 32%
Make quarter-finals: 12%
Make semi-finals: 4%
Make final: 1%
Win final: <1%

The German side face a difficult task in the same group as Real Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk and Inter Milan.

Shakhtar Donetsk

Make Round of 16: 29%
Make quarter-finals: 10%
Make semi-finals: 3%
Make final: 1%
Win final: <1%

Shakhtar have enjoyed decent campaigns in the Champions League down the years but have never come close to lifting the European Cup.

Olympiacos

Make Round of 16: 40%
Make quarter-finals: 37%
Make semi-finals: 4%
Make final: 3%
Win final: <1%

Can the Greek side escape a group containing Porto, City and Marseille? It’s a big ask.

Lazio

Make Round of 16: 37%
Make quarter-finals: 11%
Make semi-finals: 3%
Make final: <1%
Win final: <1%

Even if they escape Group F, Lazio are not expected to do too much in the knockout stages.

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Rennes

Make Round of 16: 29%
Make quarter-finals: 7%
Make semi-finals: 2%
Make final: <1%
Win final: <1%

A third-placed finish in Group E appears to be Rennes’ best bet.

Dynamo Kiev

Make Round of 16: 23%
Make quarter-finals:57%
Make semi-finals: 1%
Make final: <1%
Win final: <1%

The same applies for Dynamo Kiev in Group G.

Club Brugge

Make Round of 16: 27%
Make quarter-finals: 6%
Make semi-finals: 2%
Make final: <1%
Win final: <1%

It would take something special for Club Brugge to advance past the Round of 16.

Marseille

Make Round of 16: 19%
Make quarter-finals: 4%
Make semi-finals: <1%
Make final: <1%
Win final: <1%

Marseille are currently in mid-table in Ligue 1 but did beat PSG last month, which proves they’re no mugs.

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Krasnodar

Make Round of 16: 20%
Make quarter-finals: 4%
Make semi-finals: <1%
Make final: <1%
Win final: <1%

Krasnodar finished third in the Russian Premier League last season.

Midtjylland

Make Round of 16: 8%
Make quarter-finals: <1%
Make semi-finals: <1%
Make final: <1%
Win final: <1%

Champions League group stage debutants Midtjylland are not given much of a hope of escaping Group D.

Lokomotiv

Make Round of 16: 5%
Make quarter-finals: <1%
Make semi-finals: <1%
Make final: <1%
Win final: <1%

It would be a big shock if Lokomotiv escape a group containing Bayern and Atletico.

Ferencvaros

Make Round of 16: 5%
Make quarter-finals: <1%
Make semi-finals: <1%
Make final: <1%
Win final: <1%

Ferencvaros are not getting out of a group containing Juventus and Barcelona.

Basaksehir

Make Round of 16: 2%
Make quarter-finals: <1%
Make semi-finals: <1%
Make final: <1%
Win final: <1%

It would take a miracle of biblical proportions for Basaksehir to win the 2020-21 Champions League

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