Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd: Which team is most likely to win the 2020-21 Champions League?

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The penultimate round of 2020-21 Champions League group stage matches have now been played and we now have a clearer picture of which teams will be competing in the knockout rounds.

The likes of Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea are all safely through from their respective groups with one match remaining.

But for other teams - including Manchester United, Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid - it’s still all to play for heading into next week’s final round of games.

Over at FiveThirtyEight, data analysts have predicted the most likely winners of the Champions League.

They’ve also predicted each team’s chances of reaching the Round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and the final itself, which takes place at the Ataturk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul on May 29 next year.

Let’s take a look at every team’s chances of winning the competition…

Manchester City

Make Round of 16: YES
Make quarter-finals: 78%
Make semi-finals: 55%
Make final: 36%
Win final: 22%

Is this the year Man City finally win the Champions League? Already through to the next round, Pep Guardiola’s side should qualify from Group C in first place ahead of FC Porto.

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Bayern Munich

Make Round of 16: YES
Make quarter-finals: 77%
Make semi-finals: 51%
Make final: 32%
Win final: 18%

Last season’s European champions have won four of their opening five fixtures and sit top of Group A, seven points clear of second-placed Atletico Madrid.

Barcelona

Make Round of 16: YES
Make quarter-finals: 73%
Make semi-finals: 46%
Make final: 28%
Win final: 15%

Barcelona have won all five of their group stage matches, but Ronald Koeman surely can’t deny us all the chance of seeing Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo going head-to-head next week by resting the Argentine. Can he?

PSG

Make Round of 16: 99%
Make quarter-finals: 60%
Make semi-finals: 30%
Make final: 14%
Win final: 7%

The situation in Group H is delicately poised after PSG sealed a 3-1 win over Manchester United at Old Trafford on Wednesday night. Data analysts believe the French side will almost certainly qualify for the knockout rounds.

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Liverpool

Make Round of 16: YES
Make quarter-finals: 64%
Make semi-finals: 32%
Make final: 15%
Win final: 7%

Six-time European champions Liverpool will qualify from Group D in pole position.

Chelsea

Make Round of 16: YES
Make quarter-finals: 62%
Make semi-finals: 31%
Make final: 14%
Win final: 6%

This season’s Champions League dark horses? Frank Lampard’s side have won four of their opening five fixtures, scoring 13 goals and conceding just one.

Borussia Dortmund

Make Round of 16: YES
Make quarter-finals: 55%
Make semi-finals: 27%
Make final: 12%
Win final: 5%

With Erling Haaland and Jadon Sancho in their ranks, Borussia Dortmund have been given a five per cent chance of winning their first Champions League title since 1997.

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Atletico Madrid

Make Round of 16: 64%
Make quarter-finals: 32%
Make semi-finals: 17%
Make final: 8%
Win final: 3%

Diego Simeone’s side must avoid defeat to Red Bull Salzburg next week in order to escape Group A in second place.

Real Madrid

Make Round of 16: 67%
Make quarter-finals: 36%
Make semi-finals: 16%
Make final: 7%
Win final: 3%

Are Real Madrid about to crash out of the Champions League? Zinedine Zidane is in trouble after his side suffered a 2-0 defeat away at Shakhtar Donetsk earlier this week. A win over Borussia Monchengladbach, however, will see them through to the knockout rounds.

Juventus

Make Round of 16: YES
Make quarter-finals: 37%
Make semi-finals: 15%
Make final: 16%
Win final: 2%

Juventus signed Ronaldo to help them become European champions for the first time since 1996. The Portuguese superstar has been unable to end that long drought so far, and the data analysts believe the Italian club only have a two per cent chance of winning this season’s tournament.

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RB Leipzig

Make Round of 16: 47%
Make quarter-finals: 20%
Make semi-finals: 9%
Make final: 4%
Win final: 2%

Will RB Leipzig break Manchester United hearts next week by qualifying at their expense? Data analysts reckon they have a 47 per cent chance of escaping Group H.

Manchester United

Make Round of 16: 54%
Make quarter-finals: 24%
Make semi-finals: 11%
Make final: 4%
Win final: 2%

The Red Devils must secure a point in Germany to avoid crashing out of this season’s Champions League in the group stages.

Inter Milan

Make Round of 16: 47%
Make quarter-finals: 18%
Make semi-finals: 8%
Make final: 3%
Win final: 1%

Inter currently sit bottom of Group B but the Italian giants will qualify for the knockout rounds if they defeat Shakhtar Donetsk at the San Siro next Wednesday.

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Ajax

Make Round of 16: 51%
Make quarter-finals: 19%
Make semi-finals: 8%
Make final: 3%
Win final: 1%

Ajax will join Group D winners in the next round, but only if they manage to defeat Atalanta in Amsterdam.

Sevilla

Make Round of 16: YES
Make quarter-finals: 31%
Make semi-finals: 11%
Make final: 4%
Win final: 1%

Sevilla will not have a chance to add to their remarkable Europa League collection this season after qualifying from Group E.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Make Round of 16: 57%
Make quarter-finals: 25%
Make semi-finals: 9%
Make final: 3%
Win final: <1%

In order to reach the knockout stages, Borussia Mönchengladbach must avoid defeat away at Real Madrid next Wednesday.

RB Salzburg

Make Round of 16: 36%
Make quarter-finals: 14%
Make semi-finals: 6%
Make final: 2%
Win final: <1%

RB Salzburg have only won one of their five Champions League Group A fixtures but they will advance to the next round if they defeat Atletico Madrid.

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Atalanta

Make Round of 16: 49%
Make quarter-finals: 15%
Make semi-finals: 5%
Make final: 2%
Win final: <1%

Currently second in Group D behind Liverpool, either Atalanta or Ajax will qualify from the group.

FC Porto

Make Round of 16: YES
Make quarter-finals: 26%
Make semi-finals: 7%
Make final: 2%
Win final: <1%

It seems the data analysts at FiveThirtyEight don’t fancy FC Porto’s chances in the knockout rounds.

Lazio

Make Round of 16: 73%
Make quarter-finals: 19%
Make semi-finals: 5%
Make final: 1%
Win final: <1%

The same applies to Lazio, who need a point against Club Brugge to qualify from Group F.

Shakhtar Donetsk

Make Round of 16: 29%
Make quarter-finals: 9%
Make semi-finals: 2%
Make final: 1%
Win final: <1%

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Real Madrid away from home in October, so beating Inter Milan in Italy next week is surely a real possibility?

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Club Brugge

Make Round of 16: 27%
Make quarter-finals: 5%
Make semi-finals: 1%
Make final: <1%
Win final: <1%

Even if Club Brugge manage to qualify, the data analysts believe they’ll struggle to reach the quarter-finals.

Already eliminated: Olympiacos, Krasnodar, Istanbul Basaksehir, Marseille, Lokomotiv Moscow, Dynamo Kiev, Rennes, Zenit, Ferencvaros, Midtjylland.

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