This is a season like no other.
A congested fixture list, empty stadiums, players missing matches after contracting coronavirus are just three of the issues clubs have faced this season.
It’s led to a pretty unpredictable and, quite frankly, exciting campaign.
We say unpredictable but that hasn’t stopped CIES Football Observatory from attempting to predict how the 22 leagues across Europe will finish this season.
They write: “The projection was calculated using a statistical model taking into account shots on target and from the box attempted or conceded, ball possession, as well as teams’ own passes and those of opponents in the opposite third of the pitch.”
If you want to check out the projection of every one of the 22 leagues, click HERE.
But here we’ll bring you a round-up of Europe’s big five leagues as we look at how they’re predicted to finish.
Unsurprisingly, Manchester City are set to walk to the Premier League title with 86 points – 14 ahead of Manchester United. Liverpool sneak into third above Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea.
The race for the top-four looks set to go down to the wire with Leicester finishing fifth – just three points adrift of Liverpool in third. Aston Villa finish sixth on 63 points, one point ahead of West Ham, two points ahead of Everton and three points ahead of Tottenham. Leeds make up the top 10.
But perhaps the biggest shock comes at the other end of the table. That’s because CIES have Burnley finishing in the relegation zone with Fulham escaping on goal difference. Now that would be a surprise with Sean Dyche’s side currently eight points clear of the drop zone.
Atletico Madrid are set to beat both Barcelona and Real Madrid to the La Liga title.
Diego Simeone’s side are projected to finish on 81 points and be three clear of Barca, who finish second. Real Madrid are a further four points behind Ronald Koeman’s side. Sevilla secure the final Champions League qualification spot.
The relegation battle is where the drama is at, though. Elche are set to finish rock bottom on 30 points but there is just four points separating Eibar in 15th and Real Valladolid in 19th.
In fact, even Valencia in 12th won’t have secured their safety until the final week or so as they finish five points above the relegation zone. In the end, Huesca and Vallodolid join Elche in getting relegated.
PARIS-SAINT GERMAIN DON’T WIN LIGUE 1.
According to CIES, PSG won’t claim their fourth consecutive title with Lyon triumph by a single point. Lyon are currently two points behind PSG in third so that’s certainly a big shout. Current table-toppers Lille are set to finish in third, just three points behind the eventual champions.
There doesn’t appear to be much drama in the relegation battle as Dijon, Times and Nantes are all cut adrift from the rest.
Huge shock as Bayern Munich win the title…It’s only by six points though ahead of RB Leipzig. Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg make up the top-four meaning Borussia Dortmund miss out on Champions League qualification. Jadon Sancho and Erling Haaland may well be available in the transfer market if that happens…
Arminia Bielfeld, Mainz and Schalke are predicted to be relegated to Bundesliga II.
The most exciting title race is in Italy. Will Inter Milan, AC Milan, Juventus or Napoli win it?
Well, according to CIES it will be Antonio Conte’s Inter who finish two points above Milan. Juventus are just one point further behind. Five points separate the top four with Napoli on 76 points, finishing fourth.
At the bottom, Parma, Cagliari and Crotone are cut adrift and face relegation.