Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City: Which team will win 2020-21 Champions League?

  • Rob Swan
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The Champions League quarter-final draw takes place on Friday after the last-16 ties were completed this week.

Barcelona, Juventus and Atletico Madrid are among the teams that have been eliminated from Europe’s premier club competition.

But which club will now go on to lift the European Cup at the Ataturk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul on May 29?

The team over at FiveThirtyEight have updated their stats and calculated every quarter-finalist’s chances of reaching the semi-finals, the final, and winning the tournament.

Let’s take a closer look at the numbers…

FC Porto

To make semi-finals: 24%

To make final: 5%

To win final: 1%

FC Porto knocked Cristiano Ronaldo and co. out of the Champions League last week, so nobody should underestimate them.

That said, the Portuguese side have only been given a one per cent chance of going all the way.

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Paris Saint-Germain

To make semi-finals: 40%

To make final: 14%

To win final: 5%

Paris Saint-Germain, finalists last season, are looking to win the Champions League for the first time in their history.

The French side thrashed Barcelona 4-1 at Camp Nou in the last-16 first-leg before finishing the job with a 1-1 draw at the Parc des Princes.

They might have Kylian Mbappe and Neymar in their ranks, but PSG are only given a five per cent chance of lifting the European Cup.

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Borussia Dortmund

To make semi-finals: 41%

To make final: 15%

To win final: 5%

Borussia Dortmund apparently have the same chance of winning this season’s Champions League as PSG.

Despite boasting the prolific Erling Haaland upfront, Dortmund aren’t fancied to win the competition for the first time since 1997.

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Real Madrid

To make semi-finals: 53%

To make final: 24%

To win final: 10%

Can Zinedine Zidane inspire Real Madrid to yet another Champions League title?

Los Blancos reached the quarters after outplaying Atalanta and have been handed a 10 per cent chance of winning the European Cup for a record 14th time.

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Liverpool

To make semi-finals: 52%

To make final: 25%

To win final: 11%

Liverpool have endured a terrible campaign domestically after winning the Premier League title in style last season, but can they go all the way in the Champions League?

Jurgen Klopp’s side saw off RB Leipzig in the last-16 and will still pose a huge threat to whichever team they face in the quarters.

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Chelsea

To make semi-finals: 55%

To make final: 28%

To win final: 13%

Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea are looking superb right now. The Blues outclassed Atletico over two legs in the last-16, recording a 3-0 aggregative victory, and will fancy their chances against any of the remaining seven teams left in the competition.

FiveThirtyEight give Chelsea a 13 per cent chance of lifting the European Cup.

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Bayern Munich

To make semi-finals: 60%

To make final: 33%

To win final: 17%

Can Bayern Munich become only the second team to successfully defend the Champions League in its current format?

The German giants made light work of Lazio in the last-16, winning 6-2 on aggregate, and are capable of scoring goals against every other team left in the competition - especially with the brilliant Robert Lewandowski in their squad.

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Manchester City

To make semi-finals: 76%

To make final: 55%

To win final: 37%

But it’s Manchester City who are tipped to end the season as Champions League winners, despite the fact they’ve never won the tournament before.

Pep Guardiola’s side breezed past Borussia Monchengladbach in the last-16 and have only lost one of their previous 32 matches in all competitions.

They have a 55 per cent chance of reaching the final, according to FiveThirtyEight’s study, and a huge 37 per cent chance of lifting the European Cup in May.

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