Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea: Champions League and Europa League favourites calculated

  • Kobe Tong

The Champions League and Europa League are advancing towards the business end of the season.

With the final whistles blowing on Thursday night's round of continental action, we now know the final eight clubs who will contest the primary and secondary tournaments in UEFA's 2020/21 crown.

And it makes for fantastic reading for Premier League fans because there are two representatives from the so-called 'big six' clubs in each of the competitions respectively.

Europa League and Champions League

Manchester City and Chelsea join Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain in the hat for 'Big Ears', while Arsenal and Manchester United are rubbing shoulders with Villarreal and AS Roma elsewhere.

As a result, there's a pretty high chance that an English club will be taking home at least one piece of European silverware this season or perhaps even two a la the dramatic 2018/19 campaign.

Either way, though, I'm sure you're plotting in your head who you think might be crowned champions of Europe when May comes around and there's no denying that it's difficult to call.

But if you're struggling to reach a conclusion then fear not, because the data analysts at FiveThirtyEight have used their complex algorithm to see which clubs are most likely to win.


Data analysts predict winners

The revered statistical gurus, who also predict matters of science and politics, have ranked the four teams in each competition by their chances of winning the final - and with interesting results.

So, do yourselves a favour and check out how the remaining clubs in Europe stack up down below:

Europa League

4. AS Roma - 11% chance of winning

3. Villarreal - 19% chance of winning

2. Arsenal - 26% chance of winning

1. Manchester United - 45% chance of winning


Champions League

4. Paris Saint-Germain - 8% chance of winning

3. Chelsea - 17% chance of winning

2. Real Madrid - 20% chance of winning

1. Manchester City - 55% chance of winning


Manchester conquering Europe???

Can you imagine the absolute scenes?! It would be staggering for Europe's top club competitions to be won by two Premier League clubs again, but especially when they're from the same city.

It would seem so surreal seeing United and City lining up against each other in the UEFA Super Cup, but it's certainly something that we can get on board with.

And truth be told, not that I'd be brave enough to argue with a complex data algorithm anyway, it's easy to see why the two Manchester clubs are being backed as favourites in each competition.


Objectively speaking, I think it's pretty uncontroversial to name City as the best team in Europe right now and United are only really in the Europa League because their Champions League group was so brutal.

I do think that PSG have been rather hard done by and you'd be mad to write off an Unai Emery side in the Europa League, but make no mistake that the Mancunians are set to take over Europe.

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