England are being viewed as one of the big favourites to win Euro 2020.
Gareth Southgate’s 26-man squad is loaded with talent, particularly in the various offensive departments.
Harry Kane, Mason Mount, Jack Grealish, Jadon Sancho, Phil Foden, Marcus Rashford and Raheem Sterling are some of the finest attack-minded players on the planet and they are all available for selection at Euro 2020.
Stopping the Three Lions at this summer’s international tournament will be mighty difficult and it would likely be deemed a serious failure if they didn’t at least reach the semi-final stage.
However, England have not been looked at fondly by a supercomputer, which claims that Southgate’s side only have a 5.2% chance of winning Euro 2020.
The Analyst’s Stats Perform Predictor has ranked all 24 nations heading to the tournament by their probability of lifting the trophy on July 11th.
Here’s their brief explanation of how the model actually works:
“Stats Perform’s Euros Prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Stats Perform’s team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
“The model considers the strength of opponents and the difficulty of the “path to the final” by using the match outcome probabilities with the composition of the groups and the seedings into the knockout stages.
“The Stats Perform Euros Prediction model simulates the remainder of the tournament 40,000 times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model returns the likelihood of progression for each team at each stage of the tournament to create our final predictions.”
Got it? Right, let’s take at each nation’s chance of winning Euro 2020 then…
24. North Macedonia – 0.02%
23. Slovakia – 0.04%
22. Scotland – 0.1%
21. Hungary – 0.1%
20. Finland – 0.1%
19. Austria – 0.2%
18. Czech Republic – 0.2%
17. Turkey – 0.4%
16. Wales – 0.6%
15. Ukraine – 0.8%
14. Poland – 0.8%
13. Russia – 1.0%
12. Croatia – 1.0%
11. Sweden – 1.5%
10. Switzerland – 2.3%
9. England – 5.2%
8. Denmark – 5.4%
7. Holland – 5.6%
6. Italy – 7.6%
5. Portugal – 9.6%
4. Germany – 9.8%
3. Spain – 11.3%
2. Belgium – 15.7%
1. France – 20.5%
That’s right, England are behind both Denmark and Holland, which seems a tad odd.
France are the overwhelming favourites to win the tournament according to the supercomputer and it’s hard to argue with that to be honest.
Les Bleus’ squad is even stronger than England’s and with Karim Benzema back in the team alongside Kylian Mbappe, Didier Deschamps’ side look a formidable prospect on paper.
Although, France have been drawn in the dreaded ‘Group of Death’ alongside Germany and Portugal, so it certainly won’t be plain sailing for the 2018 World Cup winners…
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