England, Denmark, Italy, Spain: Data analysts predict Euro 2020 semi-finals and final


There are only three words on the lips of England fans right now: “It’s coming home.”

Excitement building in England

The nation is feeling optimistic about their chances of being crowned European champions this summer after reaching the Euro 2020 semi-finals with an emphatic win over Ukraine on Saturday.

The Three Lions topped their group with Croatia, Scotland and the Czech Republic, before getting the better of Germany in the knockout rounds of a tournament for the first time since 1966.

Their subsequent opponents, the aforementioned Ukraine, certainly made for a generous draw, but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that England were rampantly ruthless in Rome.

Raphael Varane is very close to joining Man Utd (Football Terrace)

England vs Denmark

Harry Kane continued his renaissance with a fantastic brace, Harry Maguire repeated his quarter-final heroics from 2018 and there was even time for Jordan Henderson to break his England duck.

As such, Gareth Southgate will lead his England side into the semi-finals of a tournament for the second time in a row with the heroic Denmark proving their opponents under the Wembley arch.

If England can overcome the Danes on Wednesday night, they will face either Spain or Italy in a game that would captivate the nation and potentially end all those decades of hurt.

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Who’s going all the way?

Now, it’s important not to put the cart before the horse because Denmark will prove to be stiff opponents, while either Spain or Italy will both provide their own myriad of problems and threats.

But all that being said, you wouldn’t be human if you didn’t imagine at least for just one second how the final three games of Euro 2020 might play out this week. Go on, admit it, we know you have.

However, don’t strain yourself too much with all the mental maths and imagination because there are more powerful and thorough predictions for Euro 2020 taking place ahead of the semi finals.


Data analysis predicts Euro 2020

While I’m sure, dear reader, that you are the second coming of Mystic Meg, you’ll forgive us for having more faith in the power of the Euro 2020 Predictive Model built by the Stats Perform AI team.

Their fascinating analysis, which takes residence on theanalyst.com, maps out the likelihood of each Euros nation making certain stages of the competition – and now we’re down to the final four.

As such, their data focuses in on the chances of Denmark, Italy, Spain and England making it through their respective semi-finals as well as their hopes of winning the whole thing if they do so.

Got it? Right, well, brace yourselves and prepare to see how your own mental predictions compare to the might of a ‘supercomputer’ by checking out the statistical model down below:


It’s NOT coming home?!

Tear down the flags, burn your England shirt and cry into your mugs of tea because football is officially NOT coming home. 

Ok, ok, just because the data points towards England making it through their semi-final with a win over Denmark only to lose to Italy doesn’t necessarily mean that’s actually going to happen.

Besides, it’s worth noting that the same model touted Belgium as favourites in their quarter-final clash with Italy.


Euro 2020: News, Groups, Fixtures, Dates, Tickets, Odds And Everything You Need To Know

However, make no mistake that Stats Perform are crunching serious data here and their forecast that Italy are 10% more likely to win Euro 2020 is not some wild stab in the dark.

And whether it be the classic pessimism of the English or genuine footballing analysis, it’s hard to imagine that the statistical model is alone in thinking that Spain or Italy will go all the way in 2021.

So, perhaps we should calm down the ‘it’s coming home’ chants and lower expectat — nah, scrap that, let’s hope that the Three Lions can prove the statistics wrong and make history this week.

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