‘The Problem Child’ will throw down with the brother of Tyson Fury on December 18 at the Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay.
Fury heads into the fight as the overwhelming favourite but Riley, who cornered AnEsonGib for his professional debut against Paul in January of last year, is leaning the other way.
Paul has spent his entire career in the spotlight and Riley believes that will play to his advantage.
“I think Jake will win that fight,” Riley exclusively told GIVEMESPORT.
“Tommy is obviously a 7-0 professional boxer but there’s levels to people and their pinnacle.
“I look at myself as a future world champion alongside other people too who know the game who know I have the potential to be there.
“I don’t believe Tommy possesses that same ability, and I don’t know if he has the same aspiration, but I don’t think he is in that category of prospect.”
He continued: “I think he’s got a lot of improving to do, I think it’s a 50/50 fight between him and Jake Paul, but I think Jake will win.
“He’s used to being the main event, he’s used to being on the big stage, he’s used to seeing his face on the screen, he’s used to the cameras, he’s used to all of it.
“It’s one thing getting the attention from the public for being on a reality TV show and it’s another thing being on a big stage fighting another man.
“I don’t think Tommy’s going to hold his nerve for this fight so I see Jake coming out the victor.”
He admitted that he will probably still end up watching the fight but it wouldn’t be his first choice.
Riley added: “You see again, these fights sound good until they don’t sound good anymore, and I feel like that’s one of those fights that’s gone a bit too far.
“Will Tyson go for the knockout? I don’t know. Do the contracts with these guys say that they can knock these guys out? We really don’t know what’s agreed behind the scenes.
“It’s a fight obviously I’ll watch if it’s on but my interest in it isn’t the same as if Logan was fighting another YouTuber or someone that I felt like was on a similar level.”
BT Sport Box Office will show Jake Paul v Tommy Fury exclusively live on Saturday 18th December.