Champions League draw: Who are Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd & Man City most likely to play?

Champions League trophy

We now know the 16 sides who will compete in the Champions League knockout stages.

The eight group winners and the eight runners-up will be included in Monday’s draw as they dream of winning Europe’s elite competition.

But the draw isn’t quite as straightforward as a group winner will play a group runner-up.

ENTER GIVEAWAY

ENTER GIVEAWAY

While that is the case, there are a few permutations.

You can’t be drawn against a side that was in the group. You also can’t be drawn against a club that competes in your domestic league until the quarter-final round.

As a result, the odds of certain ties being drawn in the last-16 are far greater than others.

Champions League

In fact, one tie is as likely as 31.27% of being drawn, while others are down at 11.28%.

After Villarreal became the 16th side to qualify for the last-16 following their 3-2 victory over Atalanta on Thursday, we can now reveal the most likely ties in the next round.

We’ll go through ever side and the odds of being drawn against each opponent.

READ MORE: Champions League Last 16 Draw: Date, UK Time, Qualified Teams, Format, How To Watch And More

Manchester City

PSG – 0.00%
Atletico Madrid – 18.44%
Sporting – 14.75%
Inter – 18.44%
Benfica – 14.75%
Villarreal – 18.44%
Salzburg – 15.17%
Chelsea – 0.00%

Conclusion: City have an equal – and best – chance of facing Atletico Madrid, Inter or Villarreal in the next round.


Liverpool

PSG – 17.86%
Atletico Madrid – 0.00%
Sporting – 14.82%
Inter – 18.71%
Benfica – 14.82%
Villarreal – 18.71%
Salzburg – 15.08%
Chelsea – 0.00%

Conclusion: Inter or Villarreal are Liverpool’s most likely opponents.


Ajax

PSG – 13.53%
Atletico Madrid – 13.98%
Sporting – 0.00%
Inter – 13.98%
Benfica – 11.28%
Villarreal – 13.98%
Salzburg – 11.48%
Chelsea – 21.77%

Conclusion: Ajax have seven possible opponents but Chelsea is their most likely tie.


Real Madrid

PSG – 19.36%
Atletico Madrid – 0.00%
Sporting – 16.37%
Inter – 0.00%
Benfica – 16.37%
Villarreal – 0.00%
Salzburg – 16.62%
Chelsea – 31.27%

Conclusion: Real Madrid being drawn against Chelsea is the most likely tie in the entire last-16 draw. In fact, Real have an almost 50% chance of facing either PSG or Chelsea in the next round. So much for winning the group…


Bayern Munich

PSG – 13.53%
Atletico Madrid – 13.98%
Sporting – 11.28%
Inter – 13.98%
Benfica – 0.00%
Villarreal – 13.98%
Salzburg – 11.48%
Chelsea – 21.77%

Conclusion: Bayern’s most likely opponent is also Chelsea with the English side only having the choice of drawing four sides.


Manchester United

PSG – 17.86%
Atletico Madrid – 18.71%
Sporting – 14.82%
Inter – 18.71%
Benfica – 14.82%
Villarreal – 0.00%
Salzburg – 15.08%
Chelsea – 0.00%

Conclusion: United are most likely to play Atletico Madrid or Inter Milan.


Lille

PSG – 0.00%
Atletico Madrid – 16.18%
Sporting – 13.13%
Inter – 16.18%
Benfica – 13.13%
Villarreal – 16.18%
Salzburg – 0.00%
Chelsea – 25.19%

Conclusion: Lille have a one-in-four chance of being drawn against Chelsea.


Juventus

PSG – 17.86%
Atletico Madrid – 18.71%
Sporting – 14.82%
Inter – 0.00%
Benfica – 14.82%
Villarreal – 18.71%
Salzburg – 15.08%
Chelsea – 0.00%

Conclusion: Juventus’ most likely opponents are Atletico Madrid or Villarreal.


Paris Saint Germain

Manchester City – 0.00%
Liverpool – 17.86%
Ajax – 13.53%
Real Madrid – 19.36%
Bayern Munich – 13.53%
Manchester United – 17.86%
Lille – 0.00%
Juventus – 17.86%

Conclusion: PSG’s most likely opponents are Real Madrid.


Atletico Madrid

Manchester City – 18.44%
Liverpool – 0.00%
Ajax – 13.98%
Real Madrid – 0.00%
Bayern Munich – 13.98%
Manchester United – 18.71%
Lille – 16.18%
Juventus – 18.71%

Conclusion: Juventus or Man Utd are Atletico’s most likely opponents, with Manchester City just behind.


Sporting

Manchester City – 14.75%
Liverpool – 14.82%
Ajax – 0.00%
Real Madrid – 16.37%
Bayern Munich – 11.28%
Manchester United – 14.82%
Lille – 13.13%
Juventus – 14.82%

Conclusion: With seven opponents on the cards for Sporting, a tie against Real Madrid is marginally more likely.


Inter

Manchester City – 18.44%
Liverpool – 18.71%
Ajax – 13.98%
Real Madrid – 0.00%
Bayern Munich – 13.98%
Manchester United – 18.71%
Lille – 16.18%
Juventus – 0.00%

Conclusion: Inter are most likely to face Liverpool or Manchester United.


Benfica

Manchester City – 14.75%
Liverpool – 14.82%
Ajax – 11.28%
Real Madrid – 16.37%
Bayern Munich – 0.00%
Manchester United – 14.82%
Lille – 13.13%
Juventus – 14.82%

Conclusion: With only Bayern Munich off the table for Benfica, their most likely opponent out of the remaining seven teams is Real Madrid.


Villarreal

Manchester City – 18.44%
Liverpool – 18.71%
Ajax – 13.98%
Real Madrid – 0.00%
Bayern Munich – 13.98%
Manchester United – 0.00%
Lille – 16.18%
Juventus – 18.71%

Conclusion: It’s Liverpool or Juventus that lead the way for Villarreal. Man City are only slightly less likely.


Salzburg

Manchester City – 15.17%
Liverpool – 15.08%
Ajax – 11.48%
Real Madrid – 16.62%
Bayern Munich – 11.48%
Manchester United – 15.08%
Lille – 0.00%
Juventus – 15.08%

Conclusion: Salzburg also have a possible seven opponents with Real Madrid the most likely of them.


Chelsea

Manchester City – 0.00%
Liverpool – 0.00%
Ajax – 21.77%
Real Madrid – 31.27%
Bayern Munich – 21.77%
Manchester United – 0.00%
Lille – 25.19%
Juventus – 0.00%

Conclusion: Chelsea conceding a last-minute equaliser against Zenit in their final group game means they can only face Ajax, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich or Lille in the last-16. It’s most likely that it’ll be Real Madrid at 31.27%!


Final conclusions

So, what are the most likely ties?

Real Madrid vs Chelsea is the standout with almost a one-in-three chance of happening.

We’ll just have to wait for Monday’s draw to see how it pans out but, either way, we’re going to see 16 of the best sides in Europe go head-to-head and we can’t wait!

Champions League draw
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