Arsenal took another massive step towards Champions League qualification with their 1-0 win at Villa Park on Saturday morning.
Having battled hard against Liverpool to no avail in mid-week, it was critical for the Gunners to get back to winning ways against Aston Villa in order to keep Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur at bay.
And that's exactly what they did with Bukayo Saka scoring the only goal in Birmingham to give Gooners renewed hope of their first Premier League finish in the top four since the Arsene Wenger days.
Arsenal's journey in 2021/22
Now, it would obviously be a dangerous game to get too ahead of ourselves here, but regardless of what happens over the coming weeks, Arsenal have still performed infinitely better than expected.
While no doubt there will have been some fans and pundits who ambitiously tipped the Gunners for a top-four finish before the season started, it couldn't have looked any less likely after three league games.
Truth be told, it's a little awkward to look back on all the catastrophising from Arsenal fans after the 2-0 defeat at Brentford, 2-0 loss to Chelsea and 5-0 mauling at Manchester City that adorned their opening games.
While, yes, that's easy to say with hindsight, Arsenal's overall league results in 2021 were very strong, the fixtures were undoubtedly tough and their form ever since has underlined Mikel Arteta's quality.
Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal Match Reaction (Football Terrace)
How far Arsenal have come
However, if you were one of those fans who was calling for Arteta's head when Arsenal stewed in the relegation zone, then fear not because even the data gurus at FiveThirtyEight were feeling pretty downbeat.
The revered number-crunching website uses a complex algorithm, which you can learn more about here, to predict every Premier League's teams chances of certain scenarios playing out, such as relegation or winning the title.
And they also happen to keep track of each team's percentage chance of qualifying for the Champions League with Arsenal currently sitting pretty on 70%, overwhelming Spurs (19%) and United (9%).
Soccer Football - Premier League - Aston Villa v Arsenal - Villa Park, Birmingham, Britain - March 19, 2022 Arsenal's Bukayo Saka celebrates scoring their first goal with Cedric Soares Action Images via Reuters/Carl Recine EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club /league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.
Premier League prediction from August
However, it wasn't always that way because if you look at FiveThirtyEight's Premier League projection from August 29 on the back of Arsenal's third consecutive defeat, it really goes to show how far they've come.
So, be sure to bask in the sheer magnitude of Arsenal's recovery by checking out how the data analysts ranked every Premier League club's chances of qualifying for the Champions League back in August:
20. Norwich City - <1% chance of qualifying for the Champions League
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19. Watford - <1%
18. Newcastle United - <1%
17. Crystal Palace - <1%
16. Burnley - <1%
15. Southampton - 2%
Soccer Football - Premier League - Everton v Southampton - Goodison Park, Liverpool, Britain - August 14, 2021 Southampton's Adam Armstrong celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates Action Images via Reuters/Jason Cairnduff EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club /league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.
14. Brentford - 2%
13. Wolverhampton Wanderers - 3%
12. Leeds United - 4%
11. Aston Villa - 5%
10. Arsenal - 8%
Soccer Football - Premier League - Manchester City v Arsenal - Etihad Stadium, Manchester, Britain - August 28, 2021 Arsenal's Sead Kolasinac looks dejected after Manchester City's Gabriel Jesus scores their third goal Action Images via Reuters/Jason Cairnduff EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club /league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.
9. Brighton & Hove Albion - 8%
8. Leicester City - 12%
7. Everton - 13%
6. West Ham United - 15%
5. Tottenham Hotspur - 33%
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4. Manchester United - 53%
3. Chelsea - 73%
2. Liverpool - 76%
- Manchester City - 90%
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Put respect on Arteta's name
It beggars belief, doesn't it?
In fact, hold that thought because it gets even crazier when you consider that the model thought there was a 7% chance of Arsenal dropping down to the Championship, which was almost as high as their top four hopes.
It boggles the mind that the north London club were deemed so unlikely to qualify for the Champions League after their nightmarish start that Brighton and Everton were genuinely tipped to have better chances.
So, sure, there's a lot of water under the bridge since then and no statistical model is perfect, but the moral of the story is that Arsenal have come so, so far since the relentless demands of 'Arteta Out'.
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To go from almost being as likely to be relegated as qualifying for the top four to establishing themselves as clear favourites in the space of just seven months means that Arteta deserves some serious credit.