How much has VAR effected the outcome of the Premier League this season? Well, quite a lot actually. The full Premier League table without the use of VAR has been calculated and its findings are fascinating.
Fans always look back to controversial VAR decisions that went against their club and state the inevitable 'if only' moment when looking to assign blame for falling short of their objectives.
But which clubs actually got the worse end of the VAR calls?
ESPN have been keeping track of the 120 times that the technology has been applied in the Premier League this campaign and used their findings to assess how the Premier League table would have turned out without its meddling.
The Methodology
Only the first VAR overturn from any given game is taken into account. This is because anything that happened after we can presume wouldn't have actually materialised.
Any decision is reverted to the original on-field call. For example a disallowed goal is ruled as a goal.
If a penalty is cancelled it's awarded as a goal, unless the team in question have a conversion rate lower than 50%.
If a goal has been awarded through VAR granting a penalty or correcting an offside call - no goal is given.
Once these incidents were accounted for, ESPN used five indicators to determine the result for the remainder of the game in question: team form, time of the incident, xG at the time of the incident, team strength (e.g. league position) and impact of the incident.
The results were then used to calculate how the league team would look without VAR's influence.
2021/2022 Premier League table without VAR
- Manchester City - 94
- Liverpool - 92
- Chelsea - 74
- Arsenal - 73
- Tottenham - 69
- Leicester - 58
- West Ham - 56
- Manchester United - 56
- Brighton - 50
- Newcastle - 49
- Wolves - 48
- Brentford - 48
- Crystal Palace - 46
- Aston Villa - 43
- Everton - 43
- Southampton - 37
- Burnley - 36
- Leeds - 36
- Norwich - 23
- Watford - 20
So, Arsenal fans, you really would have found yourselves back in the Champions League had it not been for VAR.
Man United also drop out of the European positions all together with a diabolical finishing position of eighth.
Whereas Burnley would have stayed up by the skin of their teeth at the expense of Leeds.