Premier League: Stats expert predicts full 2022/23 table

Man City win the Premier League.

How will the 2022/23 Premier League table finish?

That’s the question on everybody’s lips right now as we start to get excited about the new season with everything from supercomputers to bookmakers being used to try and predict how things will end up in May.

It’s something that we recommend trying out yourself because you either end up looking like you can legitimately predict the future or you get to laugh at how silly your forecast was when exactly nothing went as you expected it to.

2022/23 Premier League predictions

However, while the nature of the Premier League almost always means that it’s a bit of a lottery, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t – how shall we say? – superior methods of forecasting the final table.

And we’re happy to say that we think that ‘Statman Dave’ probably has a better shout at getting things right compared to, say, the bloke in the corner of your local crying into his pint, AKA yours truly.

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Which player has won the most Premier League Golden Boot awards (4)?

Those well-versed in football social media will be well aware of the presenter, YouTuber and general statistician with his name, as you probably guessed, indicating just how clued up he is on data and tactics in the sport.

As such, the ‘That Peter Crouch Podcast’ favourite makes for one of the most fascinating voices to listen to when it comes to the annual parade of 2022/23 Premier League predictions.

Premier League trophy on display.
Soccer Football – FA Community Shield – Manchester City v Chelsea – Wembley Stadium, London, Britain – August 5, 2018 The Premier League trophy on display before the match Action Images via Reuters/John Sibley

Statman Dave predicts Premier League

Bearing that in mind, when he uploaded his two cents on the matter to YouTube over the weekend, we simply had to sit up and take notice. As well as wanting to share it with you lovely lot, too.

So, be sure to check out Statman Dave’s full video and prediction down below to see his unabridged reasoning, while you can also keep scrolling to see a summary of his final table with a key line for each team.

20. Bournemouth

“Scott Parker’s slow, possession-based style will be difficult to adapt to the Premier League. When the Cherries don’t have the ball, they’re simply not a threat. They failed to score a single goal on the counterattack last season.”

19. Fulham

“I rate Marco Silva as a coach and I think they’ll be a good watch this season with their forward options, but I think the defence will let them down.”

Silva as Fulham manager.
Soccer Football – Championship – Middlesbrough v Fulham – Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough, Britain – April 6, 2022 Fulham manager Marco Silva celebrates after the match Action Images/ Ed Sykes EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or “live” services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club/league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.

18. Everton

“It’s hard to believe that the Toffees finished the 2020/21 season three points off European football with Carlo Ancelotti in charge, but consistently bad decisions has left them in serious trouble. Their squad doesn’t have an identity and is filled with players whose best days are behind them.”

17. Southampton

“A tricky start to the season could leave morale low and whilst their recruitment has been a lot better this summer, signing talented youngsters with big potential, this might not be enough to fire Southampton up the table.”

Southampton's Ward-Prowse in pre-season.
Soccer Football – Pre Season Friendly – Southampton v AS Monaco – St Mary’s Stadium, Southampton, Britain – July 27, 2022 Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse before the match REUTERS/Andrew Boyers

16. Leeds United

“There’s a genuine concern where the goals will come from this season.”

15. Nottingham Forest

“Simply put, under Steve Cooper, Forest were the standout team in the Championship. But they’ve also shown they can mix it with the big boys. Their FA Cup run featured wins over Arsenal and Leicester City, before losing 1-0 to Liverpool. Teams that deploy a back three also tend to do well when making the step up to the Premier League.”

Forest celebrate promotion.
Soccer Football – Championship Play-Off Final – Huddersfield Town v Nottingham Forest – Wembley Stadium, London, Britain – May 29, 2022 Nottingham Forest’s Brennan Johnson celebrates after winning the Championship Play-Off Final Action Images via Reuters/Andrew Boyers

14. Brentford

“Whilst I don’t think they’ll have that good a season, I think they will easily avoid a relegation scrap.”

13. Crystal Palace

“The problem, I think, for the Eagles that they face is consistency. Young players are notoriously inconsistent and that could cost them points. Patrick Vieira is also in his second season and could face a dip in form.”

Palace's squad in pre-season.
Soccer Football – Pre Season Friendly – Liverpool v Crystal Palace – National Stadium, Kallang, Singapore – July 15, 2022 Crystal Palace players pose for a team group photo before the match REUTERS/Caroline Chia

12. Wolverhampton Wanderers

“If they keep allowing the chances, then a drop in form from [Jose] Sa could send them down the table. Whilst the addition of Nathan Collins is good, he won’t alone fix their problems. A switch to the back four could, though…”

11. Aston Villa

“The problem is, I don’t think [Steven] Gerrard knows his best team and even when he has a line-up, a lot of his players are incredibly inconsistent and [Philippe] Coutinho is a perfect example of this.”

Villa's Coutinho in pre-season.
Soccer Football – Pre Season Friendly – Stade Rennes v Aston Villa – Roazhon Park, Rennes, France – July 30, 2022 Aston Villa’s Philippe Coutinho REUTERS/Benoit Tessier

10. Brighton & Hove Albion

“Graham Potter is a superb manager and the system he’s created has built one of the best statistical teams in the Premier League, consistently finishing in the top half according to expected points with a shoe-string budget. However, football isn’t played with statistics…”

9. Newcastle United

“The Magpies have made some good acquisitions under their new ownership. Whilst they’ve got a dependable core, their attacking line-up needs work. Honestly, to break into the top eight, at least, I think they need a new striker, two new wingers as well as probably another centre-back and a creative midfielder.”

Newcastle manager Eddie Howe.
Soccer Football – Premier League – Newcastle United v Crystal Palace – St James’ Park, Newcastle, Britain – April 20, 2022 Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe and Newcastle United’s Miguel Almiron celebrate after the match Action Images via Reuters/Lee Smith EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or ‘live’ services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club /league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.

8. Leicester City

“Whilst they had big injury problems last season, notably in defence, their squad is exactly the same, which maybe needs a bit of a revolution or an evolution.”

7. West Ham United

“Unfortunately for the Hammers, I think for them to crack into the top six, they need one of those teams to have a wobble. If they do, the Hammers are now in a position to capitalise.”

Rice on the ball for West Ham.
Soccer Football – Pre Season Friendly – Luton Town v West Ham United – Kenilworth Road, Luton, Britain – July 23, 2022 West Ham’s Declan Rice Action Images via Reuters/Peter Cziborra

6. Chelsea

“I think Chelsea are a volatile mix that’s waiting to go off. Their hit and miss transfer business and last season’s contract issues means their squad is massively imbalanced.”

5. Manchester United

“Whilst their starting XI is good, there’s still big question marks. They’re probably three or four players away from a starting XI that can consistently challenge for the title or make it into the top four. There’s also the Cristiano Ronaldo conundrum.”

Ten Hag as Man Utd managers.
Soccer Football – Pre-Season Friendly – Manchester United Training – Rajamangala National Stadium, Bangkok, Thailand – July 11, 2022 Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag during training REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa

4. Arsenal

“[Mikel] Arteta’s young Gunners might still be a way from challenging for the title, but they’re closer than Manchester United and Chelsea.”

3. Tottenham Hotspur

“Spurs have a genuine shot. If [Harry] Kane can stay fit and Son [Heung-min] can maintain his form from 2022, then they will challenge, but like West Ham, I think the only way they can win the league is if Liverpool and City both have a massive wobble.”

Tottenham score in pre-season.
Soccer Football – Pre Season Friendly – Rangers v Tottenham Hotspur – Ibrox Stadium, Glasgow, Scotland, Britain – July 23, 2022 Tottenham Hotspur’s Harry Kane celebrates scoring their first goal with Son Heung-min and Dejan Kulusevski Action Images via Reuters/Jason Cairnduff

2. Liverpool

“I generally think that Jurgen Klopp will struggle to find his best XI or even his best for the situation.”

1. Manchester City

“City will be frightening. The loss in depth in [Oleksandr] Zinchenko, [Gabriel] Jesus and [Raheem] Sterling and the leadership of Fernandinho could be undervalued, but I just think Pep will see through it. His style of play and management is built for winning trophies, evolving and tweaking his system and team for what he has available.”

Guardiola lifts the Premier League trophy.
Soccer Football – Premier League – Manchester City v Aston Villa – Etihad Stadium, Manchester, Britain – May 22, 2022 Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola celebrates with the trophy after winning the Premier League REUTERS/Hannah Mckay EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or ‘live’ services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club /league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.

What’s your prediction?

So, there you have it, the 2022/23 Premier League table for you to enjoy no less than nine months in advance. Isn’t it all so easy?

Ok, we’ll give up the shocking banter because as much as Statman Dave is a rightfully revered voice in the footballing space who knows statistics inside-out, that doesn’t make him a miracle worker.

The simple fact of the matter is that predicting the Premier League in advance is simply downright impossible. Then again, that’s exactly what makes it so fun to try…

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