Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal: Every Premier League club's chances of relegation

  • Kobe Tong
Man Utd's Ronaldo vs Brighton.

Manchester United made the worst possible start to the Erik ten Hag era on Sunday.

All the hope and excitement that came with their impressive pre-season campaign was erased in an instant as the Red Devils suffered the first Old Trafford defeat of their history to Brighton & Hove Albion.

Two first-half goals from Pascal Gross highlighted the problems with United‘s build-up play and defensive organisation as they floundered to a 2-1 defeat in which Alexis Mac Allister’s own goal hardly spared their blushes.

Terrible start for Man Utd

Obviously, it’s still early doors and United teams have even gone onto win the Premier League having lost their first game of the season, but it’s nevertheless a foreboding start to their campaign.

As such, the pressure is on for Ten Hag to turn things around and really start impressing his footballing philosophy onto the United players before another season starts to pass the club by.

Besides, opening up with a 2-1 defeat to Brighton leaves the Old Trafford club in rather unique circumstances when it comes to their statistical hopes for the 2022/23 campaign.

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Every club’s chances of relegation

That’s because the data analysts over at FiveThirtyEight, who use a complex algorithm to predict potential outcomes in the beautiful game, don’t exactly give an optimistic outlook on how United’s year might turn out.

In fact, their statistical model for the 2022/23 Premier League season after the first round of fixtures actually sees the Red Devils considered more likely than Brighton to suffer relegation.

Ten Hag’s men are actually slapped with a 5% chance of dropping down to the Championship, which we ultimately know to be impossible, but nonetheless paints a damning picture of where United find themselves right now.

However, before you make too many assumptions about United’s bumbling start to the season, be sure to gain the full context by seeing how the data analysts rank all 20 clubs by their probability of going down in 2023.

20. Manchester City: <1% chance of relegation

Grealish lifts the Premier League trophy.
Soccer Football – Premier League – Manchester City v Aston Villa – Etihad Stadium, Manchester, Britain – May 22, 2022 Manchester City’s Jack Grealish celebrates with the trophy after winning the Premier League REUTERS/Hannah Mckay EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or ‘live’ services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club /league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.

19. Liverpool: <1%

18. Chelsea: <1%

17. Tottenham Hotspur: <1%

16. Arsenal: 1%

15. Brighton & Hove Albion: 4%

Brighton score at Man Utd.
Soccer Football – Premier League – Manchester United v Brighton & Hove Albion – Old Trafford, Manchester, Britain – August 7, 2022 Brighton & Hove Albion’s Pascal Gross celebrates scoring their first goal with Lewis Dunk, Danny Welbeck and teammates REUTERS/Toby Melville EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or ‘live’ services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club /league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.

14. Manchester United: 5%

13. Aston Villa: 8%

12. Newcastle United: 10%

11. Leicester City: 10%

10. West Ham United: 12%

West Ham's Moyes vs Man City.
Soccer Football – Premier League – West Ham United v Manchester City – London Stadium, London, Britain – August 7, 2022 West Ham United manager David Moyes after the match Action Images via Reuters/Peter Cziborra EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or ‘live’ services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club /league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.

9. Brentford: 12%

8. Crystal Palace: 13%

7. Wolverhampton Wanderers: 17%

6. Leeds United: 24%

5. Everton: 26%

Everton's Lampard in the Chelsea defeat.
Soccer Football – Premier League – Everton v Chelsea – Goodison Park, Liverpool, Britain – August 6, 2022 Everton manager Frank Lampard acknowledges fans after the match Action Images via Reuters/Molly Darlington EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or ‘live’ services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club /league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.

4. Southampton: 32%

3. Fulham – 35%

2. Bournemouth – 36%

  1. Nottingham Forest – 55%
Forest lost their opening game.
Soccer Football – Premier League – Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest – St James’ Park, Newcastle, Britain – August 6, 2022 Nottingham Forest’s Jesse Lingard and Harry Toffolo look dejected as Newcastle United’s Fabian Schar celebrates scoring the first goal with teammates Action Images via Reuters/Lee Smith EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or ‘live’ services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club /league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.

Embarrassing for Man Utd

You know it’s bad when United are given quintuple the chance of plunging down to the English second-tier as their fellow ‘big six’ clubs who are handed a 1% probability at best.

Like we say, the Red Devils simply won’t go down, but the broader theme here is that the statistics really don’t favour their chances this season with their top four hopes capped at 13% and their title credentials slammed at just <1%.

Nevertheless, the data does more than just pan United because it also paints a worrying picture for Forest on the back of their opening day defeat, running contrary to many fans’ optimistic forecast for the promoted side.

Man Utd's Ten Hag at Old Trafford.
Soccer Football – Premier League – Manchester United v Brighton & Hove Albion – Old Trafford, Manchester, Britain – August 7, 2022 Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag reacts after his team concede the second goal REUTERS/Toby Melville EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or ‘live’ services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club /league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for further details.

Meanwhile, Villa are still sitting pretty despite suffering a reality check at Bournemouth, Leicester look set for a tumultuous season lower down the table and Frank Lampard’s Everton have a big fat target on their backs.

But remember, statistics aren’t the be all and end all in football and there’s still nine months worth of action yet to play, so there’s still plenty to go down as we wait and see who will go down.

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