With the 2022 World Cup kicking off in 11 days, predictions for the tournament are coming in thick and fast from pundits and punters to everything in between.
While some are choosing with their heart (ahem, England and Lionel Messi fans) and others with their head, the guys over at Opta Analyst have done what they do best: gone with the data and the findings of their famous supercomputer – perhaps the most accurate predictor since Paul the Octopus’ 2010 prime.
So, who is their favourite to win the tournament? Who has the least chance of winning the tournament?
Brazil favourites, followed by Argentina and France
The supercomputer has Brazil as favourites with a 16.3% chance of lifting the World Cup for a new-record sixth time on December 18th in Qatar’s Lusail Iconic Stadium. Looking at Brazil’s squad (released on Monday), it is hard to argue against it.
Their great rivals Argentina are in second place, with La Albiceleste being given a 13.1% chance of winning their first World Cup since Diego Maradona lifted the famous trophy in 1986. It is almost certain to be Lionel Messi’s last tournament and with his side currently on a 35-match unbeaten run which included a Copa Americ final win over Brazil, they are primed for a strong performance.
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - JULY 10: Neymar Jr. of Brazil hugs Lionel Messi of Argentina as Lautaro Martinez of Argentina prepares for kick off prior to the final of Copa America Brazil 2021 between Brazil and Argentina at Maracana Stadium on July 10, 2021 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (Photo by Wagner Meier/Getty Images)
Despite being the two favourites with the supercomputer, the South American giants will not be able to meet in the final unless one of the sides surprisingly does not top their group. As the brackets are currently set, a semi-final showdown is a greater possibility.
What about the defending champions France? When Opta revealed the data on June 15th after the groups were drawn for the tournament, Les Bleus were favourites. They have since dropped to third place, with the supercomputer giving them a 12% chance of becoming the first team to retain the World Cup since Brazil in 1962.
France are less certain to top their group, having been paired with dark horses Denmark, but either way, Kylian Mbappe will have to best one of his PSG “Big Three” team mates to make the final.
European sides dominate the rest of the favourites list
Closing out the top eight favourites are Spain (8.9%), England (8.8%), Germany (7.7%), The Netherlands (6.6%) and Belgium (5.8%). By virtue of the data, it is suggested these will be the eight participants in the quarter final.
Spain and Germany being together in Group E (alongside Japan and Costa Rica) and facing a difficult path to the final predicted skewers their percentages. As stands, they are likely to pair off with Belgium and Croatia in the Round of 16.
LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 26: Ilkay Guendogan of Germany reacts following the UEFA Nations League League A Group 3 match between England and Germany at Wembley Stadium on September 26, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)
What about Portugal, Cristiano Ronaldo and their Premier League All-Star cast of talent? They are given a 5.4% chance of winning their first World Cup. Would that be higher if EURO 2016 final hero Eder were still around? We’ll leave that one up to the readers.
Opta Analyst World Cup 2022 Predictions - Graphics
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What do the bookies have to say?
The bookies agree with the supercomputer on the favourites for the tournament, with fourth and fifth being swapped.
Brazil are 4/1 favourites with most bookmakers, followed by Argentina (11/2), France (6/1), England (7/1) and Spain (8/1).
One would be feeling very brave to bet on anyone outside of this quintet to be World Champions come December 18th.
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